Category: Politics

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Democrats: Stop the bedwetting. You aren’t helping.

  By 2024, Elections, Elections and Voting, Politics

Democrats: Stop the bedwetting. You aren’t helping. It was obviously from the beginning that Biden was not at his best. And I knew that it would freak Democrats out. Here is why. Middle class liberals really hate the fact of political disagreement. They believe that since they are intelligent and good-hearted, everyone should agree with them. And they are shocked and bewildered when they face strident disagreement. The first reaction is to deny it. So when, seven years ago, I first started to talk about Trump’s fascist appeal, most people thought I was hysterical. And then when strong disagreement continues, middle class liberals worry and lose confidence in themselves. And that happens even though poll after poll shows that on issue after issue the majority of people in this county are on our side. This is one of the reasons that Democrats in office are so reluctant to act on… Continue reading

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A missed opportunity, not a disaster; what the polls are showing about the debate.

  By 2024, Elections and Voting, Politics

Two post-debate poll results that allow for comparison to pre-debate polls. Almost no change compared to polls before the debate. Ipsos: Biden down 1.5; Trump up .4; Biden ahead by 2.8 Morning Consult: Biden up 1; Trump unchanged, Biden ahead by 1 Other post-debate polls show a very close race. No evidence that the debate cause a significant drop in Biden’s support. Data for progress Trump 48-Biden 45; no recent previous polls Survey USA Trump 45- Biden 43; no recent previous poll Polls do show most people think Trump won the debate whatever that means and more are worried about Biden’s age. But no sharp changes. Why didn’t the debate have more impact? 1. Biden’s age was already baked into the result. As I pointed out above, the real harm is that Biden didn’t do anything to change concerns about this age. But those concerns were not much greater and… Continue reading

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Would another candidate be stronger than Biden?

  By 2024, Elections and Voting

Data for Progress–a really good pollster I’ve worked with a few times in the past–has a new poll showing that no other Democratic candidate does any better against Trump than Biden. Two important notes: 1. The undecideds go up a both D and Trump drop a bit with other candidates. Many of the alternatives to Biden are not well known. So they would have a a greater opportunity to pick up more support among undecideds than Biden does. If Democrats chose someone I think is a really good candidate, like Gretchen Witmer, I think that as she became better known (and assuming no skeletons we don’t know about) she’d win by five points, despite the handicap of being a woman. (Most sexist aren’t voting for Democrats no matter what gender they are.) 2. Trump’s support is pretty static. He tops out at 48%. That suggests that those undecideds are not… Continue reading

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What Happens If Biden Steps Down

  By 2024, Elections, Politics

I mentioned in a previous post that whether it makes sense for Biden to withdraw depends on what we think the process of replacing him will look like and who the likely candidate would be. Here are my thoughts about that first part. To begin with, the only way the nomination is opened up is if luminaries like Obama and Clymer, along with Jill Biden can convince the president to withdraw. I think that’s unlikely. If that does happen, then there is going to be a wide open process involving 6 or 7 candidates that will likely involve some debate as well as many meetings with groups of delegates over a six to eight week period. I imagine that Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsome, and Gretchen Witmer will run. Josh Shapiro, Cory Booker, Amy Kobuchar and Elizabeth Warren may run as well. Who knows, maybe Bernie Sanders will jump… Continue reading

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A Point of Extreme Political Danger

  By Resisting Trump, Tump, US

I wrote this in 2019. “Trump is like a Bond villain. Totally over the top. Bent on world domination and the accumulation of riches without end because of a terrible psychic injury in childhood. Determined to dominate all the men and sleep with all the women around him because of the same injury. Utterly self-involved and untrustworthy. In other words, almost totally unbelievable. Except that it is real we are stuck with him for the foreseeable future.” I have seen no reason to change my mind except to say that, even though I understood Trump’s appeal in teh summer of 2016, I did not expect that his hold over the this country would be so impossible to shake. Trump is not by any means a political genius. His hold over half the country is a a product of the gruesome fit between his psychic flaws and the deep, long-standing flaws… Continue reading

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Statement on Child Tax Credit Expansion

  By Child Tax Credit, Penn Policy Center, Statement, US

STATEMENT on Child Tax Credit Expansion- Marc Stier. Executive Director, Pennsylvania Policy Center The House Ways and Means Committee today voted in favor of bi-partisan tax legislation that includes an expansion of the child tax credit along with the restoration of some expired business tax credits. The legislation is the product of negotiations between the Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, Jason Smith (R-MO) and the Chair of the Senate Finance Committee, Ron Wyden (D-OR). This legislation would benefit 16 million children in low-income families, or 1 in 5 of children under 17, including 506,000 children in Pennsylvania. It would especially help Black, Latino, and Asian children, whose parents are overrepresented in low-paid jobs due to structural barriers to opportunity. In the first year, the expansion of the child tax credit would lift 400,000 children nationwide- and roughly 16,000 kids in Pennsylvania- out of poverty. Additionally, another 3… Continue reading

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Why Claudine Gay Unjustly Came Under Fire I: Her Testimony Before Congress

  By Jew Hatred, White Supremacy and Structural Racism

In the drastically over-simplified world of public media, it’s easy for narratives to take off that bear little relationship to the truth. And it’s very hard for even those of us who are attentive to politics to delve beneath the headlines or whole stories in even our “leading” newspapers to find the truth. I’m sorry I didn’t pay enough attention to the story about the presidents of Harvard and Penn testimony. I’ve now looked more deeply into what former Harvard President Gay said in her written and oral testimony. And there is absolutely nothing objectionable let alone anti-Semitic about it. It was a good statement. In answering Rep. Stefanik’s leading hypothetical question she tried to do what a good teacher and intellectual should do, and point out that words and actions have meaning in context and that any set of words have to be evaluated in their context. That’s the… Continue reading

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Fight Back Against the (Racist) Madness

  By White Supremacy and Structural Racism

It’s very clear now that the criticisms of Claudine Gay is part of a coordinated attack on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) programs on college campuses and beyond. The focus on DEI is this year’s right-wing racist bullshit, the follow-up to last year’s right-wing racists bullshit criticizing Critical Race Theory. These attacks are the “polite” way for right-winger to gin up racism among white folks who are still not comfortable with the idea of standing in equality with Black people and who can be easily motivated to think that attacking white supremacy means abandoning ideals of universal equality and instead, embracing Black supremacy. This is nonsense. I’m going to write in more detail about this at some point. But for now let me just say that yesterday I started reading a book that purports to provide an intellectual critique of DEI and CRT. It is clear how bogus the books… Continue reading

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Myths about Gaza and Hamas

  By International politics, Middle East

Like many progressive Jews–although not enough of us–I’ve been torn and distressed about the current war. On the one hand, I do think that Israel had a right to defend itself against a bloodthirsty vicious attack. And I thought that even though Israel’s government is horrible and has been for some time. It has been taking steps, especially with regard to settlements, that make many of us despair of the possibility of a peaceful settlement with the Palestinians. But countries run by horrible governments still have a right to exist,  a right not to have its civilians attacked, and a right to defend itself against such attacks. On the other hand, I had hoped that Israel would respond with a limited, targeted military action. But instead, while there have been instances of targeted attacks for which civilians received advanced warning,  have seen a bombing campaign that seems almost indiscriminate and… Continue reading

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On Israel’s Bombing of Gaza

  By International politics, Just War Theory, Middle East

I’ve been grateful that all the work I had to do in the last weeks of the PA General Assembly has given me a respite from reading and thinking about the Israel-Hamas conflict. I have a couple of things I want to say about it. If I were making a larger argument, this one would not come first. But I finished it after reading an article comparing Israel’s bombing of Gaza with the Allied bombing of German cities in WW II. The article is in the comments. Thanks to Karly Whittaker for sharing that article. … The comparison with Allied bombing in WWII is even more telling than the article suggests. The Allies had three justification for a bombing campaign that aimed at the center of German cities and that probably killed at least 300,000 civilians. Historians are divided about which was more important at different times during the war.… Continue reading