Data for Progress–a really good pollster I’ve worked with a few times in the past–has a new poll showing that no other Democratic candidate does any better against Trump than Biden.
Two important notes:
1. The undecideds go up a both D and Trump drop a bit with other candidates. Many of the alternatives to Biden are not well known. So they would have a a greater opportunity to pick up more support among undecideds than Biden does.
If Democrats chose someone I think is a really good candidate, like Gretchen Witmer, I think that as she became better known (and assuming no skeletons we don’t know about) she’d win by five points, despite the handicap of being a woman. (Most sexist aren’t voting for Democrats no matter what gender they are.)
2. Trump’s support is pretty static. He tops out at 48%. That suggests that those undecideds are not really inclined to vote for him which is good news for any Democratic candidate.
I’ve long thought that another younger Democratic candidate without the baggage of the inflation in the last four years would have a better chance to beat Trump than Biden. But I didn’t see any way to replace Biden.
There is an opportunity now, but as before, it depends on the decision Biden makes. There is no way to force him out.
At any rate, the difference between Biden and the other is not large. And as I pointed out in another post, there is some serious downside risk to making a change now.
One last point: I think Kamala Harris could be a really strong candidate.
People point to her problems in 2020 breaking out of the pack. But that was not because she was an unappealing candidate. She was good, but not much better than others in her crowd center-left lane (Buttigieg, Kobuchar, Booker, Bloomberg).
She’s smart, speaks well, aggressive but not mean (without the limits of what is acceptable in the electorate for women candidates). She’s gotten better in the last four years.
Her problems aside from sexism and racism is that she’s associate with an administration and incumbent who people blame for inflation. That’s why she polls almost the same as Biden with less room for growth than some of the other alternatives to him.
Which is a shame because I think she’d be a really good candidate otherwise and possibly a good president.
I do think that, given these problems, Gretchen Whitmer would likely be stronger candidate than Harris this year, but as I pointed out in What Happens if Biden Steps Down? denying Harris the nomination could create a backlash among Black voters and party leaders.