The best, uncertain case for Harris

I hope this is my last long post on the Democratic candidate for president. Iā€™m going to do something here that may surprise some of you. Iā€™m going to make the best argument I can for why I think Biden should step down. And in doing so, Iā€™m going to respond to some of the claims I made the other day against him doing so. Iā€™m doing this for a few reasons. One is that this is how I think. I always look at issues from a number of sides. Another related one is that Iā€™m still remain unsure about what the right path forward is and the only way Iā€™m going to be sure is by making the best case on both sides. And frankly, none of you who have been arguing with me the post has done a very good job of making that case or responding toā€¦ Continue reading

Why it’s so hard to debate a gaslighting moron. And how to do it the right way.

Part I: Why it’s so hard to debate a gaslighting moron. I was on the debate team in high school. (I know, you are shocked!) And I was pretty successful in my first varsity year as a junior. I left high school so I never had a second year, but my former teammates were extremely successful that year. The hardest debates I had were not with the well prepared teams that made sensible, plausible arguments. I knew how to question and rebut them. Sometimes we couldnā€™t quite overcome them. Far more often we did. The really hard debates were the ones with teams who had no idea what they were doing. They would put forward a number of seemingly random, outlandish ideas backed not by reasons evidence but by absurd notions and false claims they pulled out of the air. Sometimes debaters who did this actually had a nice speakingā€¦ Continue reading

Democrats: Stop the bedwetting. You aren’t helping.

Democrats: Stop the bedwetting. You aren’t helping. It was obviously from the beginning that Biden was not at his best. And I knew that it would freak Democrats out. Here is why. Middle class liberals really hate the fact of political disagreement. They believe that since they are intelligent and good-hearted, everyone should agree with them. And they are shocked and bewildered when they face strident disagreement. The first reaction is to deny it. So when, seven years ago, I first started to talk about Trump’s fascist appeal, most people thought I was hysterical. And then when strong disagreement continues, middle class liberals worry and lose confidence in themselves. And that happens even though poll after poll shows that on issue after issue the majority of people in this county are on our side. This is one of the reasons that Democrats in office are so reluctant to act onā€¦ Continue reading

A missed opportunity, not a disaster; what the polls are showing about the debate.

Two post-debate poll results that allow for comparison to pre-debate polls. Almost no change compared to polls before the debate. Ipsos: Biden down 1.5; Trump up .4; Biden ahead by 2.8 Morning Consult: Biden up 1; Trump unchanged, Biden ahead by 1 Other post-debate polls show a very close race. No evidence that the debate cause a significant drop in Biden’s support. Data for progress Trump 48-Biden 45; no recent previous polls Survey USA Trump 45- Biden 43; no recent previous poll Polls do show most people think Trump won the debate whatever that means and more are worried about Biden’s age. But no sharp changes. Why didn’t the debate have more impact? 1. Biden’s age was already baked into the result. As I pointed out above, the real harm is that Biden didn’t do anything to change concerns about this age. But those concerns were not much greater andā€¦ Continue reading

Would another candidate be stronger than Biden?

Data for Progress–a really good pollster I’ve worked with a few times in the past–has a new poll showing that no other Democratic candidate does any better against Trump than Biden. Two important notes: 1. The undecideds go up a both D and Trump drop a bit with other candidates. Many of the alternatives to Biden are not well known. So they would have a a greater opportunity to pick up more support among undecideds than Biden does. If Democrats chose someone I think is a really good candidate, like Gretchen Witmer, I think that as she became better known (and assuming no skeletons we don’t know about) she’d win by five points, despite the handicap of being a woman. (Most sexist aren’t voting for Democrats no matter what gender they are.) 2. Trump’s support is pretty static. He tops out at 48%. That suggests that those undecideds are notā€¦ Continue reading

Is Harrisburg Ready for Change?

Is new leadership showing a new approach to legislating? Marc Stier, Executive Director Since Democrats finally took control in March, we have seen the House of Representatives pass a raft of legislation and budget proposals that not only reflect the priorities of Democrats and progressives but also has broad support in the state. Little of this legislation has be taken up, however, let alone passed, by the Senate. Three months after the start of the fiscal year, the code bills necessary to complete the budget have not been enacted. Last week, Democrats took a new approach, one that not only has the potential to finish the budget but could radically change the legislative process in Harrisburg for the better. In three key areas, House Democrats, led by Speaker Joanna McClinton and Majority Leader Matt Bradford, put forward code bills and legislation that are bipartisan in spirit and detail. They advanceā€¦ Continue reading

The Big Lie Is the Problem, Not Nonprofit Funding of PA Elections

Senate Bill 982, introduced by Senators Baker and Phillips-Hill, looks like an innocuous bill to ban ā€œthird-party fundingā€ of our electionsā€”that is the grants that nonpartisan, nonprofit groups give county election officials to help run our elections. But in fact, it is a hypocritical attempt to carry out the Republican agenda of supporting the Big Lie about the 2020 election and making voting more difficult in our state. Start with the hypocrisy: the Republican Party is the party of privatization. They want to privatize our schools by giving corporations tax breaks to support private schools. They want to hollow out our public schools by creating charter schools funded by private enterprises. When we criticize those proposals on the grounds that private funding is not accountable to the public and does not flow equally to all children, they scoff. They are also the party that pushed to use private-public partnerships toā€¦ Continue reading

The GOP showed us who they are with challenge to Pa. House map

Originally published by the Pennsylvania Capital-Star on February 24, 2022 Pennsylvania House Majority Leader Kerry Benninghoff, R-Centre, recently filed suit against the House district map produced by the Pennsylvania Legislative Reapportionment Commission (LRC). Marc Stier (Twitter)Ā  MostĀ advocates of fair districting think the newĀ district lines are an enormous improvement over those currently in placeĀ for two reasons:Ā they reflect the changing demographics of our commonwealth and they unwind two decades of extreme partisan gerrymandering, whichĀ IĀ documented in a recent paper.Ā  Predictably,Ā theyĀ haveĀ been harshly attacked by Republicans. The background for theirĀ criticism isĀ fairly obviousā€”while the new districtsĀ are, by standard metrics,Ā still somewhat tilted in favor ofĀ Republicans, theyĀ areĀ far less gerrymanderedĀ in their favorĀ thanĀ theĀ districts Republicans drew for themselves in the last two decades. It is hard notĀ to conclude that when it comes to legislativeĀ districts,Ā likeĀ presidentialĀ races,Ā RepublicansĀ areĀ not willing to accept any rules that do not guarantee theyĀ win elections.Ā  Benninghoffā€™sĀ suit raisesĀ twoĀ substantive argumentsĀ that deserve attentionā€”not least because they show us where the Republicans stand on criticalā€¦ Continue reading

The Outrageous Decision on Vote by Mail

The party-line Commonwealth Court decision declaring mail-in ballots unconstitutional is immediately outrageous and portends a deepening crisis in our democracy. The PA Supreme Court mustā€”and we believe willā€”move quickly to overturn it. The decision is outrageous for two reasons. As Judge Wojcikā€™s dissenting opinion clearly demonstrates, it is based on a one-sided analysis of the Pennsylvania Constitution and case law. Ā The majority opinion contains a close and highly textured reading of the Constitution and case law that leaves out of consideration a critical amendment to Article VII section 6 of the Constitution. Taking that amendment into account undermines the reasoning of the majority opinion. Second, the majority opinion outrageously disregards the non-severability clause in Act 77 that would require it to declare the entire Act unconstitutional if any part of it is so declared.Ā  Act 77 was a compromise in which Republicans accepted vote by mail in return for Democratsā€¦ Continue reading

MEMO: PA House Bill 1800 Is Voter Suppression and Its Amendments Are Shameful

To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly From: Marc Stier, Director, PA Budget and Policy Center Re: HB 1800 and proposed amendments Ā The Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center opposes nearly all the provisions of HB 1800 and urges members of the House to vote against it. We evaluate the legislative proposals about elections with three criteria in mind: First, they should make voting easier and more accessible for the people of Pennsylvania. Second, while they should preserve the security of our elections, they should not include security features that are unnecessary or that make voting less accessible. And third, they should provide sufficient funds to the county governments that administer our elections. Sufficient funding for our elections would resolve most of the technical problems with elections in Pennsylvania today. By these standards, HB 1800 is not genuine election reform at all. We will consider the details of the bill below.ā€¦ Continue reading