Category: Public Policy

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Some initial thoughts on the Male Malaise

  By Economic Justice, Feminism, Love and Sex

I heard a fascinating podcast on my drive to Philly: Ezra Klein talking to Richard Reeves who wrote Of Boys and Men in 2022. It’s perhaps the most detailed / data focused book on the problems of men. I have not read it yet but now will do so soon.   The main outlines of the “male malaise” are probably well known to you: boys do worse in school than girls, are less likely to go to college, and less likely to graduate. They are less likely to hold full-time jobs in their 20s or be on career tracks. As Reeves say, they tend to zig-zag more than women. And then there are the psychological issues: Men are less happy, lonelier, more likely to become substance abusers, more likely to commit suicide, and even more likely to die of COVID women. What is not clear to me is the causes… Continue reading

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The best, uncertain case for Harris

  By 2024, Elections and Voting, US

I hope this is my last long post on the Democratic candidate for president. I’m going to do something here that may surprise some of you. I’m going to make the best argument I can for why I think Biden should step down. And in doing so, I’m going to respond to some of the claims I made the other day against him doing so. I’m doing this for a few reasons. One is that this is how I think. I always look at issues from a number of sides. Another related one is that I’m still remain unsure about what the right path forward is and the only way I’m going to be sure is by making the best case on both sides. And frankly, none of you who have been arguing with me the post has done a very good job of making that case or responding to… Continue reading

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The message not the candidate is the big problem

  By 2024, Economic Justice, Politics, Progressive Politics, Public Policy

In an earlier piece, I argued that the debate about whether Biden should remain the Democratic nominee for President is missing the point.  It’s based on the false premise that Biden’s age is why he is not running in front of a deeply flawed Donald Trump whose movement is fascist and whose economic and cultural plans for the US are terrifying. As I pointed out in that piece, there is just no reason to think the Biden’s age is the problem or that replacing him with any of the likely other candidates would make it easier to defeat Trump. Here is a rough, first draft attempt to figure out what the problem is. Look at elections around the developed world, in France, the UK, and the EU. What do you see? It’s not that the left is losing. The Left won in the UK. It’s not that the right is… Continue reading

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Why it’s so hard to debate a gaslighting moron. And how to do it the right way.

  By 2024, Elections, Elections and Voting

Part I: Why it’s so hard to debate a gaslighting moron. I was on the debate team in high school. (I know, you are shocked!) And I was pretty successful in my first varsity year as a junior. I left high school so I never had a second year, but my former teammates were extremely successful that year. The hardest debates I had were not with the well prepared teams that made sensible, plausible arguments. I knew how to question and rebut them. Sometimes we couldn’t quite overcome them. Far more often we did. The really hard debates were the ones with teams who had no idea what they were doing. They would put forward a number of seemingly random, outlandish ideas backed not by reasons evidence but by absurd notions and false claims they pulled out of the air. Sometimes debaters who did this actually had a nice speaking… Continue reading

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Democrats: Stop the bedwetting. You aren’t helping.

  By 2024, Elections, Elections and Voting, Politics

Democrats: Stop the bedwetting. You aren’t helping. It was obviously from the beginning that Biden was not at his best. And I knew that it would freak Democrats out. Here is why. Middle class liberals really hate the fact of political disagreement. They believe that since they are intelligent and good-hearted, everyone should agree with them. And they are shocked and bewildered when they face strident disagreement. The first reaction is to deny it. So when, seven years ago, I first started to talk about Trump’s fascist appeal, most people thought I was hysterical. And then when strong disagreement continues, middle class liberals worry and lose confidence in themselves. And that happens even though poll after poll shows that on issue after issue the majority of people in this county are on our side. This is one of the reasons that Democrats in office are so reluctant to act on… Continue reading

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A missed opportunity, not a disaster; what the polls are showing about the debate.

  By 2024, Elections and Voting, Politics

Two post-debate poll results that allow for comparison to pre-debate polls. Almost no change compared to polls before the debate. Ipsos: Biden down 1.5; Trump up .4; Biden ahead by 2.8 Morning Consult: Biden up 1; Trump unchanged, Biden ahead by 1 Other post-debate polls show a very close race. No evidence that the debate cause a significant drop in Biden’s support. Data for progress Trump 48-Biden 45; no recent previous polls Survey USA Trump 45- Biden 43; no recent previous poll Polls do show most people think Trump won the debate whatever that means and more are worried about Biden’s age. But no sharp changes. Why didn’t the debate have more impact? 1. Biden’s age was already baked into the result. As I pointed out above, the real harm is that Biden didn’t do anything to change concerns about this age. But those concerns were not much greater and… Continue reading

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Would another candidate be stronger than Biden?

  By 2024, Elections and Voting

Data for Progress–a really good pollster I’ve worked with a few times in the past–has a new poll showing that no other Democratic candidate does any better against Trump than Biden. Two important notes: 1. The undecideds go up a both D and Trump drop a bit with other candidates. Many of the alternatives to Biden are not well known. So they would have a a greater opportunity to pick up more support among undecideds than Biden does. If Democrats chose someone I think is a really good candidate, like Gretchen Witmer, I think that as she became better known (and assuming no skeletons we don’t know about) she’d win by five points, despite the handicap of being a woman. (Most sexist aren’t voting for Democrats no matter what gender they are.) 2. Trump’s support is pretty static. He tops out at 48%. That suggests that those undecideds are not… Continue reading

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Statement on Child Tax Credit Expansion

  By Child Tax Credit, Penn Policy Center, Statement, US

STATEMENT on Child Tax Credit Expansion- Marc Stier. Executive Director, Pennsylvania Policy Center The House Ways and Means Committee today voted in favor of bi-partisan tax legislation that includes an expansion of the child tax credit along with the restoration of some expired business tax credits. The legislation is the product of negotiations between the Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, Jason Smith (R-MO) and the Chair of the Senate Finance Committee, Ron Wyden (D-OR). This legislation would benefit 16 million children in low-income families, or 1 in 5 of children under 17, including 506,000 children in Pennsylvania. It would especially help Black, Latino, and Asian children, whose parents are overrepresented in low-paid jobs due to structural barriers to opportunity. In the first year, the expansion of the child tax credit would lift 400,000 children nationwide- and roughly 16,000 kids in Pennsylvania- out of poverty. Additionally, another 3… Continue reading

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Statement in response to the Basic Education Funding Commission Report

  By Education, K-12 Education in PA, Penn Policy Center, Statement

The adoption of the Basic Education Funding Commission Report yesterday is a major step forward in meeting our constitutional and moral responsibility to fund education fully and fairly in Pennsylvania. The first step in this process was a Court decision by a Republican judge holding that our current system of funding education is not constitutional. Yesterday, the state took a second step. We are grateful that a majority of the Commission, including the Governor and the members of the General Assembly, provided a detailed and specific plan to meet the constitutional and moral requirement of adequately and equitably funding our schools—a plan we believe is fair. The plan comes very close to meeting our expectations. It sets a plausible and defensible standard for evaluating the adequacy of funding in every school district. By that standard, we need $5.4 billion per year in new funding to close the adequacy gap in a… Continue reading

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ITEP Report: Tax Fairness in Pennsylvania

  By Pennsylvania State Taxes, Presentation

Every few years, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy releases its survey of taxes in the states, “Who Pays?” Click here to read the seventh edition, released on January 9, 2024.  A summary of the data for Pennsylvania is found below. This year’s report continues to tell the same story that we have seen for decades. Taxes in Pennsylvania are among the most upside-down in the entire country. The report shows that The lowest-income 20 percent of taxpayers face a state and local tax rate that is 152 percent higher than the top 1 percent of households. The average effective state and local tax rate is 15.1 percent for the lowest-income 20 percent of individuals and families, 11.4 percent for the middle 20 percent, and 6 percent for the top 1 percent. Pennsylvania has the highest tax rate on low-income families in the entire country at 15.1%. Pennsylvania has… Continue reading