Since some of you asked, I’m going got to sum up my thoughts about whether Biden should continue as our presidential candidate with links to my earlier posts.
The most important point I want to make is that this is not an easy call. So I would simply discount the views of anyone who thinks it’s obvious one way or the other. If they are adamant that he be replaced they either have an agenda or they are ignorant. If they are adamant that he stay they are taking loyalty to someone who has been in most respect been a very good president to an extreme—or they are ignorant.
There are a couple of critical questions.
First, is Biden demented or incapable of being president. I think the answer to this pretty clear. As I pointed out here https://marcstier.com/blog2/?p=10999 he’s not demented. He had a bad night which, as I pointed out here, https://marcstier.com/blog2/?p=10997 was partly result of the real difficulties of debating Trump and the faulty preparation of his campaign team. was
Biden is old and has less energy than he did. Some of us know, or are starting learn, what that means. He’s slower and he gets tired more easily. When he’s tired, he can lose focus or get tongue tied or misremember things. While it’s better to have a president with more energy and stamina than less, the job of president doesn’t require it. Presidents rarely make snap decisions. They have lots of help and support. They can set their own schedule. And when Biden does have to make a snap decision, adrenaline will kick in and give him the energy he need. One also has to weigh Biden’s wisdom and smarts and focus on the long term, which are partly a product of his age against the burdens of his age. As I’ve pointed out in this blog post, https://marcstier.com/blog2/?p=11007 Biden has been a very good president because of that wisdom and experience.
Second, can Biden still win? I think the answer is yes but the road is harder than before. As I pointed out in this blog post, https://marcstier.com/blog2/?p=10988, the immediate polls showed little decline in how he fares against Trump Later polls showed a bit more change but still within the margin of error. I think the later polls are more a reaction to the extraordinary outpouring of pundit and editorial calls for him to leave the race more than the debate itself. If you know politics you know the press can work itself up into a feeding frenzy. But if Biden makes a firm decision to run, those criticisms will fade and the press, which has the attention span of a fruit fly, will go on to other things. There is a great deal of historical evidence suggesting that when polls move do to a one-off event there is blip and then a regression back to the previous situation. Maybe as the shock of the debate wears off swing voters will start to focus on the extraordinary danger of another Trump presidency.
If Biden can reassure people about his mental fitness in a few interviews and speeches that he can rise to the occasion, I believe he can overcome the problems created by the debate. More importantly, he may be able to do what the debate was supposed to do but didn’t, show people that he’s competent and in command.
The race against Trump will still be difficult. The age issue is not Biden’s only problem. He’s being blamed for a few immediate problems—inflation, the war in Gaza—that are not his fault and for the long term problems in our economy that especially affect young people that are also not his fault. But it’s certainly possible for him to win. I’ve pointed elsewhere to eight key argument to stop Trump that work in his favor: https://marcstier.com/blog2/?p=11004. I think they remain true and powerful. And the economy is clearly improving and seen as improving. We will likely see interest rate cuts before November that reinforce this impression. We may see a cease-fire in Gaza, too. And the reality of Trump is so bad that I think most reluctant Biden voters will do the right thing and vote for him.
So he can win, but the path is certainly harder than before. How much? I don’t really know and I don’t think anyone else does either.
Third, what would the process like be to replace him and would it helpful or harmful. In this post https://marcstier.com/blog2/?p=10981 I argued that the process itself could be organized in a way that would, most likely, not be terribly divisive except under one condition, and could generate a lot of news and enthusiasm for the process and lead to a candidate who had the support of much of the party. I still think that this is the likely outcome. But it is also possible that upon stepping down Joe Biden would anoint Kamala Harris as his successor. Last week I didn’t think this would work. This week I think it’s possible. It might be that other potential candidates who have their sights on the presidency, such as Gavin Newsome and Gretchen Whitmer, would decide that it makes sense to wait until 2028. I think the urgency of defeating Trump is so great—and the danger that the 2028 election would be constrained by Republican inroads on our democracy so likely—that it would be foolish for these candidate to wait. But politicians are somewhat risk-averse so they might do so.
Either way, I think that the process of selecting a new nominee would not be terribly divisive unless Kamala Harris is not chosen against other candidates in an open vote. There is likely to be some resentment among Black voters if the delegates pass her over. But, for reasons I’ll mention in a moment, perhaps not as much resentment as I thought a few days ago.
Fourth, would other candidates do better than Biden? As I pointed out here, https://marcstier.com/blog2/?p=10985, no candidate is so far polling better than Biden. But a number of other candidates are polling almost as well and polls show that with them in the race there are far more undecided voters. And that means they have an opportunity to pick up some of those undecided voters that at the moment are not open to Biden.
Unfortunately, they don’t seem open to the most likely Biden replacement, Kamala Harris. I think a great deal of Harris. She’s smart, speaks well, and has a lot of relevant experience. But a number of things stand in her way. One is that she is part of an unpopular Biden administration. Another is that she is particularly associated with the immigration issue where Biden is more vulnerable. Some progressive and Black voters (categories that are, of course, not mutually exclusive) are still angry about her aggressive incarceration of marijuana users when se was the Attorney General of California. And it appears a lot of voters don’t like her. That mostly the result of racism and sexism, I believe, but some also object to what they see as her “elitism.” I frankly don’t get this and think it has something to do with the resentment of people against those who break barriers—people think “why them, not someone else? But for whatever the reason, Harris is not universally loved. So there is an open question about whether she would immediately be in a better position to win than Biden. Perhaps the excitement of a new candidate will help. But the barriers to her I mentioned would still be there.
And if not Harris, then there are other issues. Whitmer and Newsome, in particular, are attractive candidates, although California has its problems that might be blamed, unfairly, on Newsome. But they are untested in the pressure of a presidential campaign. And they are basically unvetted. We don’t know what information might come out about them that could blow up their campaigns. In addition, if they are chosen, then there will be some resentment against them from Harris supporters.
Could one of Harris, Newsome and Whitmer do better than Biden? Possibly, maybe even likely. But we really don’t know for sure.
Putting this all together I frankly don’t know what the best choice would be. I’m excited about an open competition for the nomination and really think that, unless Biden’s team can do some amazing work in the next week, he’s been damaged by the debate. But the risks of switching candidates now are, for the reasons I’ve explained, great.
The only reason to replace Biden is if you think Democrats are on a clear trajectory to lose and they need something to shake up the race. It’s not clear to me that this is true. If it is, then replacing Biden is certainly what would do the trick.
So I don’t have a recommendation except to say that it is absolutely critical that no matter who is the candidate, we all get behind him and her. No matter which side you are on, there is just no room for bedwetting and recriminations. Let Biden make his choice. If he chooses to step back, speak out about your favorite candidate. And then for God’s sake, stop griping and support the eventual nominee whole heartedly and with all the energy you have.
The future of our democracy and country and earth is really and truly at stake.