Category: Politics

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The best, uncertain case for Harris

  By 2024, Elections and Voting, US

I hope this is my last long post on the Democratic candidate for president. I’m going to do something here that may surprise some of you. I’m going to make the best argument I can for why I think Biden should step down. And in doing so, I’m going to respond to some of the claims I made the other day against him doing so. I’m doing this for a few reasons. One is that this is how I think. I always look at issues from a number of sides. Another related one is that I’m still remain unsure about what the right path forward is and the only way I’m going to be sure is by making the best case on both sides. And frankly, none of you who have been arguing with me the post has done a very good job of making that case or responding to… Continue reading

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The message not the candidate is the big problem

  By 2024, Economic Justice, Politics, Progressive Politics, Public Policy

In an earlier piece, I argued that the debate about whether Biden should remain the Democratic nominee for President is missing the point.  It’s based on the false premise that Biden’s age is why he is not running in front of a deeply flawed Donald Trump whose movement is fascist and whose economic and cultural plans for the US are terrifying. As I pointed out in that piece, there is just no reason to think the Biden’s age is the problem or that replacing him with any of the likely other candidates would make it easier to defeat Trump. Here is a rough, first draft attempt to figure out what the problem is. Look at elections around the developed world, in France, the UK, and the EU. What do you see? It’s not that the left is losing. The Left won in the UK. It’s not that the right is… Continue reading

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Should Biden step down?

  By 2024, Biden, Elections

Since some of you asked, I’m going got to sum up my thoughts about whether Biden should continue as our presidential candidate with links to my earlier posts. The most important point I want to make is that this is not an easy call. So I would simply discount the views of anyone who thinks it’s obvious one way or the other. If they are adamant that he be replaced they either have an agenda or they are ignorant. If they are adamant that he stay they are taking loyalty to someone who has been in most respect been a very good president to an extreme—or they are ignorant. There are a couple of critical questions. First, is Biden demented or incapable of being president. I think the answer to this pretty clear. As I pointed out here https://marcstier.com/blog2/?p=10999 he’s not demented. He had a bad night which, as I… Continue reading

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Biden’s Talents and His Achievements.

  By 2024, Biden, Elections, People

One reason I think Biden has been such a good president. He doesn’t get swept up in the last moment but thinks ahead. He did that in getting out of Afghanistan early. I know many of you disagree but I think his policy in the Israel-Gaza war has been setting the stage for a new push to a peaceful settlement. (If only an Israel government would arise willing to grasp that possibility!) And on domestic policy he has been just brilliant . The way he maneuvered Manchin into support the inflation reduction act was absolutely and totally masterful, not just as a matter of political strategy but in adopting a very different policy strategy that Manchin would accept. He challenged his policy people to figure out a way to attack climate change with tax credit carrots instead of regulatory sticks in the IRA. By doing that he won over Manchin.… Continue reading

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Eight reasons to stop Trump

  By 2024, Elections, Resisting Trump, Uncategorized

Is it really going to be hard to convince people leaning to our side to vote? Here are eight  lines of argument. 1. Tump’s threat to democracy. 2. Trump’s threat to abortion and other basic rights including to contraception. 3. Trump’s embrace of deep tax cuts for the rich. 4. Trump’s promise to repeal the ACA. 5. Trump’s threat to social security if he keeps deepening deficits through tax cuts. 6. Trump’s threat to student debt relief and Republican efforts to block of the student debt relief Biden promised. 7. Trump demanded that Republicans blocked their own immigration reform bill because Trump demanded it. 8. Trump’s threat to our climate and the earth as a whole. I know how deeply entrenched the Trump movement is and how insane the Republicans are. But it’s still  hard for me to believe that these 8 lines of argument aren’t enough to give Democrats… Continue reading

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No, Joe Biden is not demented. Not even close.

  By 2024, Elections

Next time you are in a conversation at a meeting, listen to how other people talk. Very few people talk in complete sentences and coherent paragraphs. Most of us start sentences, double back, often get a bit lost in the middle and then find our way to the end. We stumble over words. And our sentences don’t track in full paragraphs. Some of us, especially if we have had experience public speaking can do better. I can do pretty well most of the time, unless I’m a little tired and then it is really hard. Even Obama was not perfect much of the time. (You know who was perfect? Paul Warnke, the foreign policy specialist in the 70s and 80s. He spoke slowly and deliberately in complete paragraphs. And G.D.H. Cole, the British Socialist. That’s about the only two I’ve ever seen or heard who could do that.) Biden is… Continue reading

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Why it’s so hard to debate a gaslighting moron. And how to do it the right way.

  By 2024, Elections, Elections and Voting

Part I: Why it’s so hard to debate a gaslighting moron. I was on the debate team in high school. (I know, you are shocked!) And I was pretty successful in my first varsity year as a junior. I left high school so I never had a second year, but my former teammates were extremely successful that year. The hardest debates I had were not with the well prepared teams that made sensible, plausible arguments. I knew how to question and rebut them. Sometimes we couldn’t quite overcome them. Far more often we did. The really hard debates were the ones with teams who had no idea what they were doing. They would put forward a number of seemingly random, outlandish ideas backed not by reasons evidence but by absurd notions and false claims they pulled out of the air. Sometimes debaters who did this actually had a nice speaking… Continue reading

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Democrats: Stop the bedwetting. You aren’t helping.

  By 2024, Elections, Elections and Voting, Politics

Democrats: Stop the bedwetting. You aren’t helping. It was obviously from the beginning that Biden was not at his best. And I knew that it would freak Democrats out. Here is why. Middle class liberals really hate the fact of political disagreement. They believe that since they are intelligent and good-hearted, everyone should agree with them. And they are shocked and bewildered when they face strident disagreement. The first reaction is to deny it. So when, seven years ago, I first started to talk about Trump’s fascist appeal, most people thought I was hysterical. And then when strong disagreement continues, middle class liberals worry and lose confidence in themselves. And that happens even though poll after poll shows that on issue after issue the majority of people in this county are on our side. This is one of the reasons that Democrats in office are so reluctant to act on… Continue reading

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A missed opportunity, not a disaster; what the polls are showing about the debate.

  By 2024, Elections and Voting, Politics

Two post-debate poll results that allow for comparison to pre-debate polls. Almost no change compared to polls before the debate. Ipsos: Biden down 1.5; Trump up .4; Biden ahead by 2.8 Morning Consult: Biden up 1; Trump unchanged, Biden ahead by 1 Other post-debate polls show a very close race. No evidence that the debate cause a significant drop in Biden’s support. Data for progress Trump 48-Biden 45; no recent previous polls Survey USA Trump 45- Biden 43; no recent previous poll Polls do show most people think Trump won the debate whatever that means and more are worried about Biden’s age. But no sharp changes. Why didn’t the debate have more impact? 1. Biden’s age was already baked into the result. As I pointed out above, the real harm is that Biden didn’t do anything to change concerns about this age. But those concerns were not much greater and… Continue reading

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Would another candidate be stronger than Biden?

  By 2024, Elections and Voting

Data for Progress–a really good pollster I’ve worked with a few times in the past–has a new poll showing that no other Democratic candidate does any better against Trump than Biden. Two important notes: 1. The undecideds go up a both D and Trump drop a bit with other candidates. Many of the alternatives to Biden are not well known. So they would have a a greater opportunity to pick up more support among undecideds than Biden does. If Democrats chose someone I think is a really good candidate, like Gretchen Witmer, I think that as she became better known (and assuming no skeletons we don’t know about) she’d win by five points, despite the handicap of being a woman. (Most sexist aren’t voting for Democrats no matter what gender they are.) 2. Trump’s support is pretty static. He tops out at 48%. That suggests that those undecideds are not… Continue reading