This Is Not Normal

It’s hard to look at politics in America without being afraid for our future. Everywhere we look we see extremist movements that reject common standards of argument and evidence and are willing to say anything to advance their cause—and they will not compromise even at the cost of creating a public disaster. What we see so clearly in our federal government is happening in state politics as well. And it is time for us to recognize and name it. The influence of extremist politics in the state budget process this year was not normal. And good government in this state will be impossible if it becomes normal. This year Pennsylvania faced a serious budget deficit of close to $3.5 billion. And thanks to Governor Wolf and Republican leaders in the Senate, we had a chance to deal with it in a responsible bipartisan way. But right-wing extremist Republicans in the… Continue reading

On the U.S. House GOP Tax Bill

This press statement, released on November 2, 2017, shares our reaction to the House GOP tax bill and how it will disproportionately benefit the top 1% of Pennsylvania families. “While we won’t have a detailed analysis of the U.S. House tax cut bill released today for a week or so, it is a direct descendant of previous GOP-Trump tax plans, so the rough impact of the bill becoming law is fairly clear. “Republican rhetoric that portrays the bill as benefiting the middle class is hollow. We expect that around half of the benefit of the legislation will flow to the top 1% of Pennsylvanians — those with an average income of $1.7 million. Pennsylvanians in the bottom 60% of families will see little benefit. And because of limitations on the deductibility of state and local taxes, a significant portion of middle-class and upper-middle families will see their taxes increase under… Continue reading

GOP-Trump Tax Plan: A Windfall for Top 1% of Pennsylvania, a Tax Increase for Many Middle-Class Pennsylvanians

  A 50-state analysis of the GOP tax framework reveals that in Pennsylvania, the top 1 percent of taxpayers would receive a substantial tax cut worth $67,970 while many upper-middle-class Pennsylvanians would face a tax increase. This plan is bad for Pennsylvania and our country. At a time when incomes are rising for the very rich and relatively stagnant for everyone else, a plan that lavishes tax breaks on the top 1 percent, and pays for it in part by taxing others, should not be the starting point of our tax reform debate. The Washington-based Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy released the 50-state numbers today. While GOP leaders have pitched the plan as a tax cut for the middle class, the analysis shows that this is not true for the nation as a whole or for Pennsylvania. While most Pennsylvanians would receive a modest tax cut, on average that cut… Continue reading

No Time For Giving Up

Update noon, October 18: There is talk around the Capitol that a shale tax will come out of the House Finance Committee today and coming to a vote on the House floor later this week. This legislation must be part of the budget this year. It is the difference between a budget that takes a step forward to address our long-term budget problems and one that makes those problems worse. Marc Stier, director of the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center, released the following statement on the revenue plan passed by the Pennsylvania House of Representative last night: “The tax code bill passed by the Pennsylvania House of Representatives last night is a white flag raised by the leaders of both parties, who are evidently willing to surrender to another year of make-believe budgeting rather than fight for a solution to the state’s persistent budget shortfalls. “A shale tax, which would… Continue reading

Don’t Let the Extremists Win

There are lots of rumors about a budget deal flying around Harrisburg but few details and even less assurance that votes will be found to approve in the House and the Senate. What little we hear is concerning. And the best way to understand our concerns is to look again at why we have not reached a deal until this point—extremists control the Republican Party in the House. There is a broad agreement among Democrats and most Republicans that Pennsylvania has a structural budget deficit (which simply means that year after year revenues will not pay for state expenditures, either those approved by the General Assembly this year or those demanded by Pennsylvania voters). There is broad agreement among Democrats and most Republicans that we need new tax revenues to close the deficit this year and in the future. And there is broad agreement that a severance tax should be… Continue reading

The GOP Federal Tax Proposal: Multiple Reasons to Worry

The outline of the tax proposal released by President Trump and Republican House and Senate leaders should worry all Pennsylvanians for multiple reasons. First, the plan calls for adding $1.5 trillion to the deficit over the next ten years. This is remarkably hypocritical, given that Republicans blamed President Obama for deficits even as they declined year after year after the end of the Great Recession. And it is economically risky at a time when the economy is growing. Republicans claim that tax cuts will generate much faster economic growth. This is unbelievable, given the record of previous huge tax cuts during times of economic growth. And, of course, most professional economists, on both the Left and Right, do not believe it at all. Second, the likely result of added deficits will be new pressure to cut federal spending to balance those deficits, with most of those cuts coming from health… Continue reading

How to eliminate Pennsylvania’s budget deficit

Originally published by the Allentown Morning Call on July 31, 2017 Members of the General Assembly were recently sworn in to office only to face another budget crisis. Between an already existing structural deficit, higher-than-expected human services costs, yet-to-be-realized gaming license revenue and a general revenue shortfall, the combined deficit for this year and next in Pennsylvania is roughly $3 billion. Leaders of the General Assembly rightly oppose a substantial general tax increase to fix the deficit. A higher personal income or sales tax rate would make our tax system even more upside down than it is today. Pennsylvania taxes those with high incomes at a far lower proportion than those with low incomes. State and local taxes take 12 percent of the income of families in the bottom 20 percent of the income scale, 10.3 percent of the income of the middle 20 percent of families, but only 4.2… Continue reading

Public Investment and Economic Growth: Even the Commonwealth Foundation Gets It (Sometimes)

A strange post a few days ago by Elizabeth Stelle of The Commonwealth Foundation seeks to undermine the case for a severance tax on natural gas drilling, but inadvertently explains exactly why we need new recurring revenues in the state. Stelle first repeats once again — without evidence — the same tired argument that natural gas drillers “pay more in taxes and regulatory costs than producers in competing states.” Not once has anyone at the Commonwealth Foundation quantified those regulatory costs or attempted to respond to a series of papers put out by PBPC, including this most recent one, that show that natural gas drillers are not paying much, if anything, in corporate income taxes to Pennsylvania and are paying far less in taxes (and fees) here than in other states. The second part of Stelle’s post then points out that there is a large backlog in Department of Envioornmental Protection… Continue reading

Are the Republicans Ready to Gut Higher Education to Avoid a Severance Tax on Natural Gas Drilling?

As we enter the third week of an impasse over funding the 2017-2018 Pennsylvania state budget, an astonishing possibility has come into view: the House Republicans, led by Speaker Mike and Turzai and Majority Leader Dave Reed, appear to be prepared to block funding for the four state-related universities – Penn State, University of Pittsburgh, Temple University and Lincoln University – rather than agree to the Governor’s demand that they raise $600 to $800 million in new recurring revenues. Governor Wolf and the Republican-led legislature have apparently agreed to a number of one-time revenue measures to close the budget deficit – proposals like borrowing from other funds or selling licenses for new gaming sites – that only bring in revenues in one year. But the Republicans, particularly in the House, appear unwilling to agree to Governor Wolf’s insistence that the fiscal health of the commonwealth requires new recurring tax revenues… Continue reading

Revenue Options to Finish the 2017-18 Budget

Since 2010, Pennsylvania has consistently enacted budgets that, instead of being paid for by current revenues, borrow from the future. The general fund budget has been balanced by borrowing from other funds, shifting spending from one fiscal year to the next, and more. In this press memo, we outline a few revenue options with bipartisan support that could provide at least some of the long-term revenues needed to balance Pennsylvania’s budget. MEMO To: Editorial Page Editors, Editorial Board Members, Columnists, and Other Interested Parties From: Marc Stier, Director, Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center Date: July 10, 2017 Re: Revenue Options to Finish the 2017-18 Budget As legislative leadership and Governor Wolf look to wrap up the revenue portion of the 2017-18 state budget, the remaining negotiations is at least focused on the right subject: finding adequate and sustainable long-term revenues. Unfortunately, rather than work for new recurring revenues, Republican Leadership continues on the irresponsible… Continue reading