IFO Report: Deficits Now and In The Future

Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center Director Marc Stier made the following statement following the Independent Fiscal Office release of their Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook: “The herculean efforts of the Governor and General Assembly to overcome their divisions and reach a budget agreement last year may have enabled legislators to leave town in July. But it left the state with a deficit of at least $524 million for the current year, a projected deficit of at least $1.7 billion for the year beginning July 2017, and budget deficits that grow year after year beyond that. “If the state continues to generate revenue under current laws and maintains the current level of services, the projected deficit reaches $3 billion in 2021-22 and continues to grow by $175 million per year thereafter.  “That conclusion, which is contained in the new Five year Economic and Budget Outlook released today by the Independent… Continue reading

On HB 1885, the Sanctuary Bill

Legislation rushed to the finish line in an election year is notorious for being both badly crafted and motivated by less than pristine motives. And that certainly goes for HB 1885, the anti-sanctuary city bill passed by the House recently and currently under consideration in the Senate this week. There is a lot wrong with the bill, starting with the intention of its sponsors to appeal to the anti-immigrant voters whose ire has been inflamed by Donald Trump and continuing on to its likely consequence of leading to racial profiling that undermines police-community relationships, and thus effective policing, in (documented and undocumented) immigrant communities. But here I want to focus on the potential economic costs of the bill to the counties and cities of Pennsylvania—costs that have been barely considered in the fast-track legislative debate on it. The House Fiscal Note on the bill does not even try to identify,… Continue reading

Rep. Brad Roae Compares School Board Members to Hitler

Marc Stier | 10/19/2016 Blog This week, in a Facebook discussion with a person who seems to be one of his constituents, Representative Brad Roae (R-Crawford/Erie) felt it was appropriate to compare school board members in Pennsylvania blaming charter schools for the financial difficulties of their districts to Adolf Hitler blaming Jews for “everything that was wrong with the world.” I’m not sure whether I should be more offended as a Jew or as a policy analyst by Representative Roae’s remark.     It is, of course, morally offensive to anyone who grasps the evil of Hitler’s murder of 6 million Jews, to compare it to any other crime. A general rule of thumb about Hitler comparisons is to not make Hitler comparisons. But to compare it to a public policy choice like the opposition of school boards to charter schools would be doubly offensive if it were not so… Continue reading

Higher Education Funding in Pennsylvania

In this press memo, dated October 14, 2016, PBPC shares some of our most recent findings about the funding of higher education in light of a strike deadline by members of the Association of Pennsylvania State College and University Faculties (APSCUF) against the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education (PASSHE) looming. To: Education reporters, editorial board members and columnists From: Marc Stier, Director, Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center Subject: Higher Education Funding in Pennsylvania Date: October 14, 2016 With the October 19 deadline for a strike by members of the Association of Pennsylvania State College and University Faculties (APSCUF) against the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education (PASSHE) looming, I thought it might be useful for us to share again with you some of our findings, and that of our national partners, about the funding of higher education in Pennsylvania. There are many important issues at stake in the dispute… Continue reading

The Revenue Shortfall and the Budget

Marc Stier | 10/07/2016 Blog Almost as soon as the Pennsylvania budget was passed in July, rumors swirled about the legislature coming back—either in a lame duck session in December or next year—to fix it because it was not truly balanced. The Department of Revenue’s announcement yesterday that revenues for the year to date are running $218 million below estimates, makes revisting the budget even more likely. In July, we at PBPC pointed out that estimates of some of the one-time revenuesincluded in the budget—especially those from selling licenses for internet gaming, for a second Philadelphia casino, and for the expansion of alcohol sales—were possibly over-stated. We also said that we were not confident that enough money was appropriated to meet the likely caseload for medical assistance (The Commonwealth must appropriate its share of funding for these programs to continue to draw down the federal funding for them.) Those problems… Continue reading

New Data, Good News: Health Care

Most news is bad news. And political campaigns are more likely to flag what is wrong with our country than what is right with it. So, it’s not surprising that in the heat of a presidential election, we are more focused on what is wrong with our country than what is right with it. But as the federal government updates its statistics on income, poverty, and health care this week, we can take a moment to appreciate the good news—government at the federal and state level has been increasingly successful at encouraging prosperity. We start today with health care. The Affordable Care Act remains controversial and even those of us who support it recognize that further reforms are needed to guarantee that quality health care remains affordable to everyone. There can be little doubt that the ACA is working in Pennsylvania and beyond. Between those who bought health insurance on… Continue reading

Your Activism (and C3 Dollars) at Work

This is the second in a series of blog posts assessing the 2016-17 budget and the budget negotiation process from PBPC and its allies. Politics takes patience. Victories take time. And that goes for small victories as well as big ones. While the 2016-17 Pennsylvania budget leaves much to be desired, it does close about half of the structural deficit this year with recurring revenues; that is, revenue that the state will receive year after year. And that revenue mostly comes from a series of good proposals that we at the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center have championed over the years. One is the provision to close the sales tax vendor loophole. Stores, including big box retailers like Wal-Mart and Home Depot, have up until now been allowed to keep a portion of the sales tax revenue they receive from customers. That provision in the tax law in Pennsylvania and… Continue reading

Victories

This is the first in a series of blog posts assessing the 2016-17 budget and the budget negotiation process from PBPC and its allies. It’s hard to be a progressive in Pennsylvania. We think of ourselves as a modern, Northeastern state on a par with Massachusetts and New York, Connecticut and New Jersey. But when it comes to state politics, we find ourselves looking with envy at those states with their progressive taxes and higher (and much more equal) spending on education and human services than here at home. And it’s gotten worse in recent years as right-wing extremists have taken hold of one of our political parties. This year is no different. I’ve already complained about an appropriations bill that does not invest enough in education and human services and the environment and a tax bill that relies too much on one-shot rather than recurring revenue and makes some… Continue reading

A Budget Balanced in Name Only

Finally, with the passage of a revenue bill to fund the appropriates bill passed last wee, we can say the 2016-2017 budget is done. But whether it was a success or not, is very much in doubt. The budget deficit is, technically closed. New projected revenues of $1.3 billion have been enacted. But as the following table shows, over half of the new revenue is non-recurring. That is, it is one-time revenues that will be available only this year and not in future years. That means we will start the 2017-2018 budget year already more than $700 million in deficit. New Revenue in 2016-17  (in millions of dollars) Recurring Revenue Non-recurring revenue Cigarette Tax 431 Tax amnesty 100 E-Cigarettes 13 Internet gaming 100 Smokeless Tobacco 48 Liquor licenses 149 Roll you own 3 Casino license fee-Philadelphia 50 Cap sales tax vendor discount 56 Table games license fee 25 Sales tax… Continue reading

Statement On the General Assembly Passing a Revenue Bill (HB 1198)

Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center Director Marc Stier made the following statement on the General Assembly Passing a Revenue Bill (HB 1198): “The General Assembly finally acted today to meet its constitutional responsibility by voting to raise the $1.3 billion in revenues needed to fund the recently passed appropriations law. But while the revenue package may technically balance the budget for 2016-17, in three respects it does not solve the long term fiscal problems of Pennsylvania.   “First, too much revenue ($709 million) comes from one-time rather than recurring sources ($627 million). As a result, the state’s long term structural deficit has not been closed. Next year will bring another debate about how to fund the government over the long term. “This problem is exacerbated by a second one: the revenue package relies too heavily on dubious sources. Expected revenues from liquor privatization, internet gaming, the license fee for a… Continue reading