On Joint Resolution 1, The Constitutional Amendment on Property Taxes

We are getting a lot of questions about what the constitutional amendment on the ballot this year means and where the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center stands on it. We haven’t rushed to judgment on it for a couple of reasons. First, we are not convinced that this amendment will, by itself, have much impact on policy in the state. And second, given that any amendment to the Constitution is important, we wanted to make sure we understood all the implications of it before reaching a conclusion. We have reached a conclusion — that the amendment won’t make much difference. And that’s why we aren’t going to offer any recommendation about how to vote. So let’s begin by explaining what the amendment does and, as importantly, does not do. The background: our uniformity clause The key piece of background information one must know to understand this amendment is that the… Continue reading

The Rhinocerization of America

I’m in a bit of a state right now. I’ve been dwelling all day on how much trouble this country is in. And then the terrorism in Texas may have sent me over the edge. To not say anything seems impossible. To ask, as I did the last time we faced a terror attack, if the shooter is a terrorist, a thug or simply crazy is to make a point most everyone who reads this will already understand. To offer thoughts and prayers seems ridiculous. I’m just profoundly scared about the future of this country, and indeed, of liberal democracy in the world. I believe the moral arc of the universe bends to justice. I believe that morality is deeply rooted in the nature of human beings and in our capacity to reason. But it has always taken struggle to realize our aspirations to the human good and justice. The forces… Continue reading

Property Tax Elimination in PA — on HB/SB 76

As we at the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center point out here, some people believe that the constitutional amendment on the ballot in November would make it easier to enact some version of the property tax elimination proposal HB /SB 76. We’re not sure that this is true. But if it were, we would certainly oppose the constitutional amendment because HB / SB 76 is possibly the worst policy proposal we’ve ever encountered.  There is a superficial appeal to the proposal to replace the property taxes raised to fund Pennsylvania’s schools with state-wide income and sales taxes. We rely too heavily on local taxes, mostly property taxes, and far less heavily on state taxes to fund our schools. And the over-reliance on local property taxes is one of the main reasons we have the most inequitably funded schools of any state in the country. It is also why property taxes… Continue reading

This Is Not Normal

It’s hard to look at politics in America without being afraid for our future. Everywhere we look we see extremist movements that reject common standards of argument and evidence and are willing to say anything to advance their cause—and they will not compromise even at the cost of creating a public disaster. What we see so clearly in our federal government is happening in state politics as well. And it is time for us to recognize and name it. The influence of extremist politics in the state budget process this year was not normal. And good government in this state will be impossible if it becomes normal. This year Pennsylvania faced a serious budget deficit of close to $3.5 billion. And thanks to Governor Wolf and Republican leaders in the Senate, we had a chance to deal with it in a responsible bipartisan way. But right-wing extremist Republicans in the… Continue reading

GOP-Trump Tax Plan: A Windfall for Top 1% of Pennsylvania, a Tax Increase for Many Middle-Class Pennsylvanians

  A 50-state analysis of the GOP tax framework reveals that in Pennsylvania, the top 1 percent of taxpayers would receive a substantial tax cut worth $67,970 while many upper-middle-class Pennsylvanians would face a tax increase. This plan is bad for Pennsylvania and our country. At a time when incomes are rising for the very rich and relatively stagnant for everyone else, a plan that lavishes tax breaks on the top 1 percent, and pays for it in part by taxing others, should not be the starting point of our tax reform debate. The Washington-based Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy released the 50-state numbers today. While GOP leaders have pitched the plan as a tax cut for the middle class, the analysis shows that this is not true for the nation as a whole or for Pennsylvania. While most Pennsylvanians would receive a modest tax cut, on average that cut… Continue reading

No Time For Giving Up

Update noon, October 18: There is talk around the Capitol that a shale tax will come out of the House Finance Committee today and coming to a vote on the House floor later this week. This legislation must be part of the budget this year. It is the difference between a budget that takes a step forward to address our long-term budget problems and one that makes those problems worse. Marc Stier, director of the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center, released the following statement on the revenue plan passed by the Pennsylvania House of Representative last night: “The tax code bill passed by the Pennsylvania House of Representatives last night is a white flag raised by the leaders of both parties, who are evidently willing to surrender to another year of make-believe budgeting rather than fight for a solution to the state’s persistent budget shortfalls. “A shale tax, which would… Continue reading

Don’t Let the Extremists Win

There are lots of rumors about a budget deal flying around Harrisburg but few details and even less assurance that votes will be found to approve in the House and the Senate. What little we hear is concerning. And the best way to understand our concerns is to look again at why we have not reached a deal until this point—extremists control the Republican Party in the House. There is a broad agreement among Democrats and most Republicans that Pennsylvania has a structural budget deficit (which simply means that year after year revenues will not pay for state expenditures, either those approved by the General Assembly this year or those demanded by Pennsylvania voters). There is broad agreement among Democrats and most Republicans that we need new tax revenues to close the deficit this year and in the future. And there is broad agreement that a severance tax should be… Continue reading

The GOP Federal Tax Proposal: Multiple Reasons to Worry

The outline of the tax proposal released by President Trump and Republican House and Senate leaders should worry all Pennsylvanians for multiple reasons. First, the plan calls for adding $1.5 trillion to the deficit over the next ten years. This is remarkably hypocritical, given that Republicans blamed President Obama for deficits even as they declined year after year after the end of the Great Recession. And it is economically risky at a time when the economy is growing. Republicans claim that tax cuts will generate much faster economic growth. This is unbelievable, given the record of previous huge tax cuts during times of economic growth. And, of course, most professional economists, on both the Left and Right, do not believe it at all. Second, the likely result of added deficits will be new pressure to cut federal spending to balance those deficits, with most of those cuts coming from health… Continue reading

Graham-Cassidy Repeal Bill — Just Plain Bad for Pennsylvania

As I write this, it is possible that the Graham-Cassidy bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act and make major changes to the traditional Medicaid program is already dying or dead. Two Republican members of the Senate, McCain of Arizona and Paul of Kentucky, have said they will vote against it. Senator Collins of Maine has announced that she is leaning against it. I’m hopeful that Senator Murkowski of Alaska will all announce that she is against it.  And when that happens, I expect a substantial group of Senators will join them because this bill is truly dangerous to every state and the only reason it is even being considered is that Senate Republicans fear the short-term political costs of disappointing their base voters and funders more than they fear the long-term costs of doing great harm to their constituents. Once it is clear that there is no path forward… Continue reading

Budgets and Balances: The PA House GOP Budget Plan to Raid Special Funds Explained

The Pennsylvania House Republican plan to balance the budget in part by raiding other state funds is something of a moving target. A new amendment Representative Moul (A03286) to House Bill 593 is the legislative vehicle in which elements of the plan will move to the floor of the House as early as today. We want to take a step back and put the whole plan to use supposedly “surplus” money that is “sitting around doing nothing” into perspective. This plan rests on a fundamental confusion between bank balances and budgets, one that has played a role in the life of most married couples once or twice. And perhaps the easiest way to understand it is to consider a scenario not unfamiliar to most of us. One partner — I’m going to make him the husband in this version but it doesn’t have to be — picks up a flyer from… Continue reading