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The Likely Impact of COVID-19 on Pennsylvania

  By COVID-19, PBPC Blog posts

Originally published by KRC-PBPC here. A recent study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington projects the impact of the COVID-19 virus on the state between now and August 1, 2020. The study concludes that by then the virus will have killed more than 3,000 Pennsylvanians, and it will heavily stress our health care system in mid-April. But thanks to the social distancing and business closures required by the Wolf administration, our state will avoid the devastation that might occur if current COVID-19 trends—which are a product of our interaction before the policies went into effect—were to continue. The study projects that the peak need for hospital resources will occur in Pennsylvania on April 17 when 9,745 hospital beds will be required. That number is below the 14,395 hospital beds in the state. However, it also predicts that 1,417 beds will be needed… Continue reading

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What Not to Do in the Face of a COVID-19 Driven Recession: Lessons from the Corbett Years

  By COVID-19, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania Budget

Originally published by KCR-PBPC here. By Marc Stier and Diana Polson As COVID-19 hurtles us towards a global recession, Pennsylvania will need to make difficult decisions about how to handle a possibly huge shortfall in state revenues as well as a mandated increase in state costs for such things as Medicaid. We are working to estimate how much state revenues will suffer due to the recession but there are many unknowns, especially because this is an unusual recession, one that is a product of deliberate and necessary policy choice. With no models for this kind of recession, we do not know how deep the recession will be, how long it will last, or how quickly the economy can recover. At this point, we can only give a wide range of possibilities. It is likely that state revenues will drop between $4.5 and $9 billion in the current fiscal year and… Continue reading

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Funds for Pennsylvania in the Senate Coronavirus Relief Act

  By PA Budget and Policy Center, PBPC Blog posts

Originally published by KRC-PBPC here. By Marc Stier and Maisum Murtaza Update April 1: Two additional funding streams are not yet included in the table below. 1. The state should receive about $800 million in additional support for Medicaid / Medical Assistance through December, 2020. 2. The state will receive about $523 million  in funding for Education from the Elementary and Secondary School Emergency School Relief Fund and $104 million from the Governor’s Emergency Education Relief Fund. This brings the total funds that will be received by the  state to roughly $5.5 billion. Updated March 30, 2020. The Senate Coronavirus Relief bill contains many parts. It will direct federal funds to flow to state and municipal governments through numerous funding streams. The largest one is the $150 billion Coronavirus Relief Fund which will bring Pennsylvania $4.96 billion with about 21% going to county and municipal governments with a population of… Continue reading

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Here Is What We Know About the COVID-19 Stimulus Bill

  By COVID-19, Economic Development, PBPC Blog posts, Politics

Originally published by KRC-PBPC here. Here is what we think we know about the bipartisan COVID-19 stimulus / relief bill that we expect the Senate to pass today. Let me be clear that lawmakers reached a deal—but the legislative text is not yet complete. Legislative staff members are working to fill in all the blanks on the agreements in order to have a full bill to move to the floor today. Some of these details may change in the final version. We will be updating this blog post throughout the day as we receive more details. Cash payments: The bill provides a one-time stipend of about $1,200 per individual making up to $75,000, $2,400 for couples making $150,000 or less, and $500 per child. The payment will be reduced gradually as incomes rise. Individuals who make up to $99,000 and couples making up to $198,000 would receive less. Though still unsure, we believe… Continue reading

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Calm Before the Storm: An Analysis of Governor Wolf’s Proposed Budget for 2020-21

  By Budget analysis, Diana Polson, PA Budget and Policy Center, Pennsylvania Budget, Stephen Herzenberg

Originally published by KRC-PBPC here, By Diana Polson, Marc Stier, and Stephen Herzenberg We were in the last two weeks of work on this analysis of the governor’s proposed budget for the fiscal year beginning on July 1, 2020, when the political and economic world in which we’d been living tilted on its axis. The coronavirus that is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic was creating havoc in China, both to the health of the population and to the economy of the country. It is now clear that the United States is heading into a recession. We should expect that our economy, and indeed the whole world, will suffer for some time. A recession will have a severe impact on the budget of Pennsylvania with regard to both revenues and expenditure. Revenues will certainly decline. And expenditures for human services—especially for Medical Assistance (Pennsylvania’s Medicaid program), Unemployment Compensation, SNAP (formerly called… Continue reading

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The Moral Equivalent of Wartime Equality: Public Policies in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Pennsylvania

  By Uncategorized

Originally published by KRC-PBPC here. he coronavirus poses a number of serious challenges to every country and to every state in the nation, and the challenge is not just to our health but to our political and economic institutions as a whole. This devastating virus will not just spread illness and death, and undermine our economy and our lives, but it will do so in ways that will fall unequally on our people. Those who have low incomes, or who are ill or disabled, will bear greater burdens—not just from the virus but also from the policies and practices we must all embrace to limit its spread. Our struggle to contain the virus is both difficult in itself and is also creating economic difficulties for many of our fellow citizens. The demands made on us by this struggle has been rightly called by more than one observer “the moral equivalent… Continue reading

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M4A and the Future of American Politics

  By Health Care, Inequality, Politics, Public Policy, US

Elizabeth Warren’s campaign may be over soon. But before she disappears, let’s learn from what may have doomed her campaign, her stance on health care. Some of my friends who know that I’m a latecomer to Medicare for All might be surprised I’m enthusiastic about it now. And those who believe some of the silly stuff Sanders’s supporters said about Warren’s version of M4A, will be outraged that I think Warren has something to offer on this subject. Going really bold and then pulling it back was not smart politics by any means. Warren pulled off a political self-hat trick. First, she offered a bold M4A plan that scared the centrists. Then she offered an interim health care plan that the left felt was a betrayal. And, ultimately, she made everyone wonder if she knew what she was doing. But for reasons I’m going to explain, both her ultimate goal… Continue reading

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Majority rule with democracy or how to do a contested convention

  By 2020, Elections, Politics

Democrats are facing the possibility of a disastrous brokered convention, one that could remind us of the 103 ballot convention in 1924 that made it impossible for the party to win a winnable election. It seems possible that Bernie Sanders will come to the convention with a plurality of delegates—that is more than any other candidate—but not the majority required to win the nomination on the first ballot. That would lead to a second ballot in which the unelected party leaders and members of Congress who serve as superdelegate would vote. There are two problems with this scenario. First, it is very difficult to have a brokered convention without brokers, political leaders who can move large blocks of delegates. The presidential candidates will presumably have some influence on their delegates but not real authority over them. Even with brokers, conventions sometimes led to a long, drawn-out process that, at its… Continue reading

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Only Wealthy Immigrants Need Apply: The Chilling Effects of “Public Charge”

  By Immigration, Pennsylvania

By David Dyssegaard Kallick, Cyierra Roldan and Marc Stier Originally published at by the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center of the Keystone Research Center. The day the new public charge rule goes into effect, the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center and the New York Fiscal Policy Institute are releasing a report demonstrating the harm it will create for Pennsylvania families, the Pennsylvania economy and state revenues. The “public charge” inadmissability test has been part of federal immigration law for more than one hundred years. Federal law allows the government to deny permanent residence (a “green card”) to a person “likely at any time to become a public charge.” The Trump administration’s new regulations significantly stiffen this forward-looking test. The public charge rule will make it much more difficult for low- and moderate-income families to make their lives in the United States if they are considered likely to use public benefits… Continue reading

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Falling Down a Chute to Oblivion

  By Philosophy, Politics

There was a time in my life–teens and twenties mostly–when death terrified me. I had occasional thoughts and nightmares about falling slowly down a chute to oblivion, all the while grasping at walls that were too sheer to provide any but a momentary delay. I haven’t been bothered by those thoughts for years. One of the nice things about growing older, if you do it right, is that your concerns broaden far beyond yourself. Having children helps. Making friends helps. Taking part in important work that engage you with ideas and people helps. All these are ways to connect to something beyond yourself, and something that will survive your death. And gradually you recognize that what truly defines you as a human being–the things you love–will survive your own death and that the part you have played in loving them will survive you as well.  Those nightmares have come back,… Continue reading