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Senator Corman’s Budget Fantasy

  By PA Budget and Policy Center, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania Budget, Public Policy

The Independent Fiscal Office’s projection that the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania faces a $1.8 billion structural deficit for the fiscal year beginning July 1 is now beyond dispute. And we at the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center (PBPC) believe that there are only two ways forward. One path leads to a relatively small tax increase that closes the deficit and restore funding for education and human services. The other path leads to devastating cuts in education and human services. In response to that stark choice, Senator Corman has decided to change the subject by focusing on pension costs in his column in Pennlive. Senator Corman must know this is a complete fantasy. PBPC has analyzed various pension “reform” proposals over the years and we’ve shown not only do they barely reduce expenditure in the short term, they also don’t save much money in the long term. We’ve also demonstrated that pension… Continue reading

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The Narcissism of Small Differences

  By 2016 Presidential race

Mitchell Swan just proposed an interesting idea–perhaps the relatively low Democratic turnout has arisen because the differences between Clinton and Sanders are actually not that great, especially compared to the differences between both Democrats and the Republicans. Now, I know that the Bernie and Hillary partisans don’t think the premise is true You see huge differences between Hillary and Bernie. But maybe your vehemence–and your efforts to focus increasingly on relatively trivial matters that are of no interest to the vast majority of voters–is a product of that lack of broad difference. It’s a combination of the imperatives of competition and what Freud called the “narcissism of small differences.” Continue reading

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How Trump Will Win

  By 2016 Presidential race

Trump has given self-promotion a bad name. But can I just point out that a few weeks before the reigning genius of political prognostication, Nate Silver, wrote a long post about why the Trump campaign would soon collapse, I wrote a long post explaining why Trump had a really good chance to win. My argument was not only about the appeal of Trump to the white working class base / old middle class of the Republican Party, which I’ve argued is motivated far more by race, anti-feminism, and fear of foreign enemies than economic conservatism. I also pointed to Trump’s media skills and ability to finance. My argument also rested on there being no dominant candidate in moderately conservative (which for Republicans means not totally loony) lane and that Rubio / Bush / Kasich / Walker would divide up that tendency. I think this is as important as Trump’s ability… Continue reading

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Scalia’s Hypocripsy

  By 2016 Presidential race

Here in a nutshell is why Scalia’s originalist theory of constitutional interpretation doesn’t make sense and can’t be consistently followed by him or anyone else. Scalia says we should be guided by the “meaning of the words” of the Constitution not by the intent of the Framers in achieving certain goals in using those words (which is why he was disdainful of Courts examining legislative history.) 1. But the most important word such as “freedom of speech” and “due process of law” are abstract concepts only given meaning within a large theoretical understanding of politics, our rights, etc. 2. There has never been any time in our history in which there was only one political theory that everyone accepted. As a result, the meaning of these abstract words have always been contested. 3. The Framers were well aware of this. It they wanted to avoid, rather than encourage, Courts to… Continue reading

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Unforgiveable

  By 2016 Presidential race

Given that we are in relentless pursuit of every mistaken political position and illegitimate friendship Clinton and Sanders have taken and made in their lives, I decided to put all my Facebook friends under the same scrutiny. I made a list of the 100 most important issues of my lifetime, starting with the Cuban Missile crisis. And I made a list of the most odious people in national, state, and local politics. I was going to ask all of you to indicate your position on those issues AT THE TIME (anyone can be right after the fact). And I was going to require that you all indicate if you ever had a conversation with the odious people in which you didn’t tell them how horrible they were. My plan was to de-friend anyone who did not score at least a 95%. Because, if you were wrong about the 1994 crime… Continue reading

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Pennsylvania at the Crossroads

  By PA Budget and Policy Center, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania Budget

Originally published at Third and State, February 9, 2016 Pennsylvania is at a crossroads. We face a stark and profound choice between two different paths. The first path would build on the broad consensus about public policy that animated our politics for generations. That consensus, forged by both Democrats and Republicans, recognizes that without good public education, our kids won’t succeed and our economy will stall.  It accepts responsibility for taking care of the disabled, ill and aged who, through no fault of their own, need our help. It seeks no more, but also no less, taxation and government necessary to attain these critical goods. And it places the tax burden on those who can afford it most, corporations and the wealthy. The other path, which abandons common sense and is contrary to the experience of most Pennsylvanians, tell us that government never works. It falsely proclaims that our schools… Continue reading

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Which Door Will the Taxman Knock On?

  By Pennsylvania State Taxes, Published op-eds

Originally published in the Allentown Morning Call, February 6, 2016 If we in Pennsylvania are to avoid another billion-dollar cut in education spending plus a billion-dollar cut in spending on health care and human services, the taxman is going to have to knock on someone’s door. It’s time the knock comes on the doors of corporations and the wealthy, not those of the middle class and working people. The state’s Independent Fiscal Office recently projected that if no changes were made to current policy and taxes, the state of Pennsylvania would run a deficit of $318 million during the current year. That deficit would rise to $1.8 billion or more in the fiscal year beginning July 1. And that is the deficit before any new spending. If Gov. Wolf and the General Assembly reach an agreement on education spending, but not on how to raise the revenue to pay for… Continue reading

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On PA Budget: “Declare Victory” and Go Home

  By Budget, PA Budget and Policy Center, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania Budget, Public Policy, Published op-eds

Originally published in NewsWorks, February 5, 2016 In 1966, Senator George Aiken returned from a trip from Vietnam with the recommendation that the United States “declare victory and bring the troops home.” It wasn’t entirely clear that the U.S. had won the war at that point, but we also hadn’t yet lost the war (as we would after another eight years of suffering and death). It’s a very different context, but I’m inclined to give the General Assembly similar advice: Finish the work on the bipartisan budget, declare victory, and go home. Last year, an appropriations bill that implements the bipartisan budget framework, SB1073, passed the Senate by an overwhelming vote of 43-7. It was one roll call vote short of passing the House in December, having already been approved by a narrow, yet bipartisan, majority on second reading. The General Assembly should return to that bipartisan approach now and then… Continue reading

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Don’t Stress About 2016

  By 2016 Presidential race

Here’s why I’m not stressing about the Democratic nomination. To win the nomination, Sanders has to do what he needs to do to win the general election: expand the electorate, turn out young people, convince the base of the party, Blacks, to support him, and win over white working class Democrats who sometimes vote Republican while not scaring off moderate Democrats with his tax and spending ideas. And he needs a volunteer base twice the size of Obama’a. If he does all that, he’ll be the next President. If not, Clinton will be the nominee and Sanders will enthusiastically support her and encourage his volunteers to work for her. Most of the people Sanders has energized will do so, if only because of the Republican nominee. And she will be elected president. I don’t see a bad ending here unless the Clinton and Sanders supporters adopt the tactics of Republicans… Continue reading

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Understanding the Numbers in a Budget Crisis

  By Budget, Education, K-12 Education in PA, PA Budget and Policy Center, Pennsylvania Budget, Policy reports

This Reports and Briefing Papers compares the three budget propasls comimng out of Harrisburg: Governor Wolf‰’s budget proposal, the Republican budget, and the bi-partisan budget. The report focuses especially on the differences and similarities among these three budgets with respect to proposed General Fund spending as a share of the state economy and spending on two key components of the budget, Pre-K-12 education funding and human services funding. Click here to print or read full screen.  Continue reading