Trump has given self-promotion a bad name. But can I just point out that a few weeks before the reigning genius of political prognostication, Nate Silver, wrote a long post about why the Trump campaign would soon collapse, I wrote a long post explaining why Trump had a really good chance to win.
My argument was not only about the appeal of Trump to the white working class base / old middle class of the Republican Party, which I’ve argued is motivated far more by race, anti-feminism, and fear of foreign enemies than economic conservatism. I also pointed to Trump’s media skills and ability to finance. My argument also rested on there being no dominant candidate in moderately conservative (which for Republicans means not totally loony) lane and that Rubio / Bush / Kasich / Walker would divide up that tendency. I think this is as important as Trump’s ability to connect with the Republican base. Now that Bush is out and Kasich will be out after Ohio, this part of my argument will be tested. But by the time that happens, Republican primaries will become winner take all at the Congressional district level and this will enable Trump to run up delegates even if he never breaks 40%.
The key to that happening is for Cruz to stay in the race and keep taking a big chunk of the vote. I hadn’t seen his appeal, to be honest. But it has helped Trump by taking the hard core evangelical vote which, like the folks Trump appeals to, are not primarily motivated by conservative economic ideology but who are also unlikely to find Trump very appealing. It looks like Cruz has enough money to stay in for a while while Rubio is cash poor.. And that should help keep Trump on top as well.