I keep hearing from intelligent people who know something about politics that Allyson Schwartz can’t win statewide because she directed a women’s health center—the Elizabeth Blackwell Center—that along with providing a wide range of health services, also provided abortions. (BTW, my wife’s first job was working at the Blackwell Center. Yes, we go back with Allyson a long way.)
Now, do I need to add that every one of those intelligent analysts are men? (And that a few of them appear to be working for other potential candidates for Governor who presumably support abortion but are raising questions about Allyson’s support of it?)
The DGA poll that showed Allyson beating Corbett in every part of the state really pushed on that issue and it had no effect on the polls. Why not? Why are the (male) analysts wrong? The reason is that both the state and our nation as a whole have dramatically changed from the old days when being pro-choice made it hard to win statewide in Pennsylvania and when the abortion issue hurt Democrats nationally.
Women in the cities and the suburbs—especially the Philly subburbs—are pro-choice. Many of them are Republicans or lapsed Republicans or the children of Republicans become independents. How do you think Obama wins by huge numbers percent in Montco and Delco? It’s the vote of these women. And some of the pro-life men in Western PA aren’t Democrats or don’t vote for Democrats any more. Rendell and Obama and Kane showed that you can win in the state even if you lose more of them than Governor Bob Casey did.
There was a time, immediately after Roe vs. Wade, when the abortion issue really helped Republicans because it divided both parties. Those who opposed the abortion were really passionate about it in part because they had lost in the Court and in part because of their religious fervor. The result was that many pro-life Democrats voted for Republicans. Pro-choice Republicans were more likely to stick with their party because, as the winners on Roe, they were less passionate about the issue and because could count on the court to protect abortion rights.
Then three things happened.
First there was generational change. A lot of the kids of those pro-life Republicans are now indpendents or even Democrats because they share the Democratic stand on cultural issues. In addition, many of their parents were old-time liberal Republicans on economic issues and the Republican Party has moved far to the right on those issues as well.
Second, the Republican threat to abortion rights keeps getting more serious. We are one SCOTUS seat from losing Roe. Republicans are ramping up the effort to push awful restrictions on access to abortion and ultra-sound requirements (which Corbett notoriously supports). And the Republican Party has gone off the deep end both in supporting these restrictions and, even more, in rejecting abortion in the case of rape and incest. (And don’t forget Santorum’s attempt to make contraception a political issue again.)
And third, there is a personal factor. Neither political analysts nor political scientists have given it enough recognition. About a third of all women have had abortions. Contrary to the image of a abortion as the first recourse of young single irresponsible women, the majority of those who have abortion are married women whose birth control failed and who are not in a position to have another child. Even for single women, abortion is the last resort when contraception fails, not the first.
Every woman has a close friend or daughter or mother who has had an abortion. A lot of men have had wives or daughter or girlfriends who have had abortions. They—and especially the women—know how difficult a decision it is to have an abortion; how hard it is to get abortion; and how important it is for a woman to find good health care provider that can also provide a safe, non-judgmental and supportive place to have an abortion if they need one. This personal experience has gradually had an impact on political views of abortion.
So it’s not just that the majority of women and men are pro-choice. It’s that the abortion issue is a visceral issue for pro-choice women in a way that men find very hard to understand because, after all, it’s not our bodies that get pregnant. But for the vast majority of women who want control over their own bodies, it really does trump everything else. Even if the polls show that most women and men don’t believe abortion should be a method of birth control or legal in this case or that, deep down women and men understand that birth control fails. So a strong majority of women and a majority of men really do believe that is important to keep abortion legal and safe.
It’s a huge advantage for a Democrat to be pro-choice now. And there is a huge advantage to be a female candidate because women trust women on this issue more than they trust men, and with good reason.
So, yes, there are going to be really nasty TV ads about the Blackwell Center coming from Corbett. Despite the polls and focus groups which will show them they shouldn’t do it, I don’t think the old white guys who tell Corbett what to do will be able to help themselves. They just can’t recognize or accept a world in which men don’t control the bodies of women.
But when Corbett runs the abortion provider ads, they are just going to blow up in his face. Allyson will look into a TV camera at a debate or in her own ad and talk as a woman to other women (and men) about difficult personal decisions, about how important it is that they have the right to make those decisions in a place of safety and respect, and how male politicians like Tom Corbett have no business putting themselves in the middle of those decisions. And that, among other things, will carry the day and the election for Allyson Schwartz.
“…but I’m personally opposed.” Can you count how many pro-choice politicians have said that over the years? Therein lies to problem for Ms. Schwartz, no one would believe that she said it. There are those on vote sides of this hotly charged issue that have made up their mind. But for many in the middle, they may be moderately pro-choice but would clearly be unease being represented by an abortionist.
There’s a quota? You partly agreed with me the other day. Or did I agree with you?
The Blackwell issue It is a dog whistle to simply juice Republican base turnout and has very little power as a disqualifier of a Schwartz gov candidacy in the general – of course it will be talked about but in SEPA – Schwartz vs Corbett will be entirely about taxes and jobs and competing priorities ( tax breaks for energy companies vs investing in education from preK – post secondary ) – Blackwell is a joke of an issue – and can have real blowback on whoever tries to use it. Okay – my quota of agreeing with Marc is met
lol – oh I didn’t remember Ed running an abortion clinic or running that he’d change abortion in PA. You are such a tool. So how much are you getting for this campaign?
Yes, you are right, Ronnie. Pro-choice Democrats can’t win in PA. Barack Obama’s two victories and Ed Rendell’s two victories are figments of my imagination.
Marc – I was a professional political consultant for 6+ years. Republican for hire – third party for fun. I DO have a track record and it was kicking democrats’ butts. As Rus has stated – you really are blinded on this issue. Good-luck with that.
Rob Teplitz had an ad in which he looked straight into the camera and said, “I support a woman’s right to control her own healthcare decisions.” And he won Dauphin and northern York. I bet Marc is right on this one.
But while we are talking about WOMEN’S HEALTHCARE, let’s talk about our governor shuttering women’s health centers across the state. Putting rural women at risk. If we are going to take on that debate, I’m willing.
^^That’s a much better take on all this!
In a state where our government has slashed funds from the neediest schools, where gas companies rape our land and our people while paying next to nothing, where an institution that’s closely tied to the Governor protected a man who raped children for years I doubt the #1 issue will be abortion in the election. So much more is at stake, people aren’t as naive as you believe them to be.
Well some Democratic operatives seem to making the argument that you are making that “operating an abortion clinic” is another thing. Well, first of all, that’s just a tendentious way of putting it. The Blackwell center was a women’s health center. It didn’t just provide abortions.
Second, if any of you read my piece, then you know that I don’t think this argument is going to play well at all for the Republicans. Women not only have a right to abortion in the abstract, they need safe, respectful, comforting places to get an abortion if they need one. (And it looks like my numbers were low. Cloer to 40% of women have had an abortion.)
Third, last time I looked, there are women in the T. Some are pro-life. A lot more are pro-choice. And there are pro-choice men. And the basic fact is, as Julia and I keep pointing out, pro-lifers dont’ vote for Democrats anymore. We lost them a long time ago.
I have no doubt Corbett is going to raise the issue. We already konw from the DGA poll that it will make little difference. What I”m saying is that in the reality of a campaign, it will blow up in his face. Allyson will know exactly how to make that happen.
For God’s sake, Obama is not only black and pro-choice but was the pro-gay marriage candidate and he won enough votes in the T to carry the state by a substantial margin. Why does anyone think that a pro-choice women is going to have problems.
Mark has done a masterful job of turning this into a pro-choice verses pro-life issue. I’m really surprised he raised it. That is not what many Democrats are hesitating about.
Being pro-choice and having owned and operated an abortion clinic are two very different things. I have no doubt that this issue has been played to death in Philly. But the truth is in central and western PA this will be a very difficult issue for the congresswoman.
Before anyone gets into the arguments of the central and western part don’t matter I would tell you that you don’t understand how to count. It’s true a Democrat cannot and will not win many of the counties in the central and western part of the state. You always play those sections for the margins. If a Rendell gets 39% and a county and Onorato, for instance, gets only 22% who makes up the difference? In PA politics you must learn to chase spread as much as you chase big numbers. Too many very smart people make the mistake of ignoring counties they know they cannot win. They fail to understand that they need a minimum number coming out of each of those counties to be successful statewide.
So the central and western parts of the state matter. To equate the pro-choice views of all of the announced and likely candidates for governor With the fact that an abortion clinic was owned and operated by one of the announced candidates, Is putting your head in the political sands.
I am assuming Mark brought this up so that all the cards can get on the table early. I have no doubt no Democratic candidate will slam the congresswoman over this particular issue. But sometimes we need to look deeper and beyond our own personal preferences for governor and other races. I am envisioning 3o second television spots right now the Corbett and other Republican operatives will do on this abortion issue. We cannot be blind to this.
The understanding I’ve always had, regarding politics, is that candidates go where the votes are. Issue platforms and well-meaning change become secondary to a politician wanting to keep a job. Let’s not get all misty-eyed and think something else is the reality. Whether or not Schwartz and Corbett personally hold the beliefs to which they purport to hold is irrelevant, as they have two needs to satisfy- their pockets and their egos. They’re good sales people who can convince their co and counterparts that the voice of those people they represent is the right voice. So, whether pro-life or pro-choice, find a person who best represents your ideas and stay on point in this thread.
People who don’t believe abortion should be legal no longer vote democrat, get over it.
Oh dear…. the pictures 🙂 This is the way that I have always hoped political discourse would be, civil, informed, and well-reasoned. We do not get enough of that these days, usually a “You’re and idiot….. ” followed by an expletive. Again, good stuff that makes me think.
Thanks! Good to hear from you. I saw your name pop up on FB a little while ago and couldn’t remember where I knew you from. I’ve probably taught 4500 students and it’s hard to remember all the names. But now that I see your picture, i do.
Dr Stier, this is why I enjoyed your classes at UNCC. Didnt agree with you politically, but loved a good and well-reasoned discussion.
Do you also refrain from offering opinions on gang violence and murder? After all, you’re not a gang member.
Thanks Amy L. Ringenbach I’m going to be less polite. @Russ I am sick of dicks ( literally and figuratively) offering opinions on abortions.
Now that, that right there. That. Right there. That right there.
Really, Amy? You don’t know how politics works do you?
My my, how much do you hate women, Russ Diamond? The Elizabeth Blackwell Health Center offered far more that merely abortions, but gee, you wouldn’t know about it, would you?
But we don’t need your vote to elect a Governor, Russ. We can elect a governor who stands with us on abortion, so why should we care about your view? Do you want Republicans to nominate people who have views about taxation that I approve of?
Not true. They might vote for Jack Wagner. Heck, I might vote for him.
The people who feel as you do about abortion aren’t going to vote for her. They aren’t going to vote for Rob McCord or Tom Wolf or any other Democrat. And they are a minority of the population. So it doesn’t matter whether it feels warm and fuzzy to you. It matters whether people care about women having the right to make decisions about their bodies themselves.
Sorry. Doesn’t feel warm and fuzzy to Pennsylvanians.
She ran an abortion clinic, Marc. You can dress it up with a fancy name all you like, but abortion clinic is hoe it will play out. That just doesn’t feel warm and fuuzty
Because you are such a good political prognosticator, as proven by your track record in the past?
You’re delusional on this issue, Marc.