S&P to PA: Snap Out of It

Remember when, in the movie Moonstruck, the character played by Nicholas Cage tells the character played by Cher that he loves her. And she slaps him in the face and says, “Snap out of it?” Well that’s what the financial firm Standard and Poor’s just told the state of Pennsylvaniayesterday. They, once again, threatened to downgrade our bonds – forcing up the interest rates we pay – if we don’t get our fiscal house in order. They are telling our General Assembly to: Snap out of our reliance on one-year revenues, like licenses for gaming or liquor sales to “balance” our budget. Snap out of our willingness to move money from one fund to another to “balance” our budget. Snap out of our penchant for over-estimating revenues to “balance” our budget. Snap out of our tendency to shift spending from one year to another to “balance” our budget. And most… Continue reading

PRESS MEMO: New Estimates of the Loss of Federal Funding to Pennsylvania from the Senate Health Care Bill

The Manatt Health Group and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation have released a study on the impact of the Senate health care bill, the Better Reconciliation Act of 2017, on the states. Their estimates of the impact of the bill confirms our recent study showing that Pennsylvania will suffer devastating reductions in federal funding for Medicaid. It also offers some more fine-grained detail on the nature of these reductions. MEMO To: Editorial Page Editors, Editorial Board Members, Columnists, and Other Interested Parties From: Marc Stier, Director, Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center Date: July 7, 2017 Re: New Estimates of the Loss of Federal Funding to Pennsylvania from the Senate Health Care Bill The Manatt Health Group and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation have released a new study of the impact of the Senate health care bill, the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017, on the states. Their estimates of the impact of the bill confirms… Continue reading

Senate Bill Raises Marketplace and Employer-based Premiums for Most Pennsylvanians

We have been focused recently on the impact of the Senate health care bill on Medicaid, mainly because the dangers of both the House and Senate bills to Medicaid have not been well known, and because the Senate bill is far worse than the House bill. So, in this and next post I want to remind you that if you purchase health insurance on the exchanges / marketplaces or receive it from your employer, the Senate bill is bad for you as well. The following table looks at the impact of the Senate bill on the average premiums Pennsylvanians at different ages and income levels will pay for silver plans on the marketplace. For all but 35 year olds at 300% of the poverty, premiums will be higher than under the ACA. For Pennsylvanians who have lower incomes or are older, the premium increases are substantial. For forty-five year olds… Continue reading

How Dumb Does Senator Toomey Think We Are?

Marc Stier | 07/02/2017 Blog I’m not just a practitioner of political rhetoric, but also a connoisseur of it. I can appreciate a good argument and a well-turned phrase put forward by our ideological opponents. And, rather than get disturbed by what the other side says, I take their best work as a challenge. But what truly does get me angry is when our opponents not only lie, but do so with arguments that are insulting to the intelligence of the people we are trying to influence – the citizens of Pennsylvania and America. So it’s no wonder that I find what Senator Toomey says about the impact of the Senate health care bill on Medicaid so utterly offensive. When I hear him speak on the plan he played a major role in devising, I can’t help but wonder, ‘how dumb does Toomey think we are?’  I can quickly answer: Not… Continue reading

The Republicans Of My Youth Didn’t Encourage Vice

Marc Stier | 06/30/2017 Blog Note: This is the second of two pieces on the Republicans of my youth.. Part II: Encouraging Vice The Republicans of my youth were not only men of fiscal rectitude, they were men of moral rectitude. I can’t say what they did in private. I’m sure some of them drank from time to time and some drank too much. They probably also gambled from time to time either on a trip to Las Vegas or at the local trotter track, or maybe with a local bookie. But in public they frowned on these vices. They believed that people had a right to make their own choices, but they believed that government had a responsibility to direct people away from behavior that could be dangerous to themselves or others.   And they certainly didn’t think the government should be encouraging drinking or gambling. When the lottery… Continue reading

The Republicans of My Youth Didn’t Borrow to Balance Budgets

First of two pieces of why I miss the Republicans of my youth.  There are times when I miss the old-fashioned Republicans of my youth, in the small-town America in which I grew up, about 40 miles over the Pennsylvania border in rural New York. Those mostly Protestant Republicans were the bankers, the insurance agents, the ministers, as well as many of the doctors and lawyers. They were a little stiff and formal in their suits and ties, horn-rimmed glasses, grey suits and deep voices—and the hats they all wore in the early 60s. They were men (no women were among them) who carried themselves with an easy dignity and a concern for propriety. Some of them were no doubt louts or adulterers behind closed doors. Some drank too much in private—or sometimes even in public in the evening. Some may have cheated in business or on their taxes. But… Continue reading

First Look at the 2017-18 State Budget

While we will need some time to analyze the details of the budget that the House and Senate will pass today, our preliminary view is that it is, as we had expected from the beginning of the year, an austere budget that does not really address the deep public investment deficit of the state, but it certainly could have been far worse. Given that the General Assembly seems utterly unwilling to raise revenues to meet public needs, negotiations by the leaders of the legislature and Governor Wolf have led to a budget that still takes some small steps forward. We caution, however, that we have only half of a budget so far. No plan has been passed to secure the revenues necessary to balance the budget. And, as we will point out later today in more detail, we are deeply troubled by reports that the deficit for the year that… Continue reading

State As Well As Federal Republicans Go After Medicaid

At both the state and federal level, Republican Party leaders seem to be on the warpath against Medicaid. Thankfully, rank and file Republicans in both legislatures and the public seem to be pushing back against them, as long, bi-partisan support for Medicaid continues. At the federal level, both the Senate and House Republican health care bills call for drastic cuts to not just the Medicaid Expansion but traditional Medicaid. The cuts they propose will lead to tens of thousands of seniors, children, disabled people and working adults losing health care. Thankfully some Republicans are pushing back against the proposal. Four Pennsylvania Republican members of the U.S. House delegation voted against the House bill. And while Senator Toomey is pushing to make the Senate bill worse, so far he hasn’t convinced all his Republicans colleagues to join him. In Pennsylvania, Republican leaders want to seek federal waivers for our Medicaid program… Continue reading

Effects of U.S. Senate Health Care Bill on Pennsylvania

MEMO To: Interested Parties From: Marc Stier, Director, Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center Date: June 28, 2017 Re: Effects of U.S. Senate Health Care Bill on Pennsylvania The Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center will be releasing a number of briefs on the effects of the U.S. Senate health care bill in the next few days. You can see our initial statement in response to the CBO scoring of the bill here. Below is our first brief on the effects of the bill on Pennsylvania. Who Shall Live and Who Shall Die – Estimating Number of Premature Deaths Due to the GOP Health Care Plan Legislators, like God, make decisions all the time about who shall live and who shall die. So many public policies, from those that control access to medicinal and recreation drugs, to those that set speed limits and safety standards for the roads, to those that help people… Continue reading

PBPC On the CBO Report for the Senate Health Care Bill

Marc Stier, Director of the PA Budget and Policy Center, made the following statement following today’s release of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on the U.S. Senate GOP Health Care Bill (Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017) It’s official — the Senate health care bill is not an improvement but actually worse for Americans than the House bill. The CBO analysis released today holds that 22 million fewer Americans will be insured in 2026 as a result of the Better Care Reconciliation Act. That is slightly better than the House bill. But, as the CBO itself hints, it’s ten-year analysis of the bill does not take into account the drastic change the Senate bill makes to the Medicaid program in 2025. This plan, proposed by Senator Toomey, reduces the index by which per capita caps go up each year from the medical inflation rate (CPI-M, which is projected by… Continue reading