Combine spending restraint with new revenue

This piece originally appeared in the Erie Times-News, December 28, 2016. Pennsylvania has been struggling with persistent budget deficits since the start of the Great Recession in 2008. And we at the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center have been recommending a “balanced approach” to resolving the deficit from the beginning, one that combines restraint in spending with new revenues. But since 2010, under Govs. Tom Corbett and Tom Wolf, the General Assembly has adopted an unbalanced approach. Spending has gone down but revenues have gone down faster. From 1994 to 2011, under both Democratic and Republican governors, the state spent 4.7 percent of the state’s gross domestic product. During the Corbett years that fell to 4.3 percent as spending on education and human services were sharply cut. And while, thanks to Wolf, the state has been able to restore some of those cuts, spending in the last two years remains… Continue reading

On The Mid-Year Budget Briefing: The Full Picture Is Even More Grim

Budget Secretary Randy Albright’s mid-year budget briefing this week brings worrisome news that, at its current level of expenditure and revenues, the Pennsylvania budget for the 2016-17 will have a deficit of $600 million. Part of that deficit is the result of lower tax revenues than were projected when the budget was enacted in July. Another part is higher human service caseloads, which will require a supplemental appropriation.   The projected deficit might increase again if the General Assembly does not enact legislation to bring in $100 million in internet gaming revenues and if a second Philadelphia casino license is not sold for $50 million. While the current year deficit is a problem for the state, unfortunately it is not the biggest budget problem we face. The Independent Fiscal Office is projecting a 2017-18 deficit of $1.7 billion, which does not include the ongoing costs of higher human service caseloads… Continue reading

IFO Report: Deficits Now and In The Future

Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center Director Marc Stier made the following statement following the Independent Fiscal Office release of their Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook: “The herculean efforts of the Governor and General Assembly to overcome their divisions and reach a budget agreement last year may have enabled legislators to leave town in July. But it left the state with a deficit of at least $524 million for the current year, a projected deficit of at least $1.7 billion for the year beginning July 2017, and budget deficits that grow year after year beyond that. “If the state continues to generate revenue under current laws and maintains the current level of services, the projected deficit reaches $3 billion in 2021-22 and continues to grow by $175 million per year thereafter.  “That conclusion, which is contained in the new Five year Economic and Budget Outlook released today by the Independent… Continue reading

The Revenue Shortfall and the Budget

Marc Stier | 10/07/2016 Blog Almost as soon as the Pennsylvania budget was passed in July, rumors swirled about the legislature coming back—either in a lame duck session in December or next year—to fix it because it was not truly balanced. The Department of Revenue’s announcement yesterday that revenues for the year to date are running $218 million below estimates, makes revisting the budget even more likely. In July, we at PBPC pointed out that estimates of some of the one-time revenuesincluded in the budget—especially those from selling licenses for internet gaming, for a second Philadelphia casino, and for the expansion of alcohol sales—were possibly over-stated. We also said that we were not confident that enough money was appropriated to meet the likely caseload for medical assistance (The Commonwealth must appropriate its share of funding for these programs to continue to draw down the federal funding for them.) Those problems… Continue reading

Your Activism (and C3 Dollars) at Work

This is the second in a series of blog posts assessing the 2016-17 budget and the budget negotiation process from PBPC and its allies. Politics takes patience. Victories take time. And that goes for small victories as well as big ones. While the 2016-17 Pennsylvania budget leaves much to be desired, it does close about half of the structural deficit this year with recurring revenues; that is, revenue that the state will receive year after year. And that revenue mostly comes from a series of good proposals that we at the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center have championed over the years. One is the provision to close the sales tax vendor loophole. Stores, including big box retailers like Wal-Mart and Home Depot, have up until now been allowed to keep a portion of the sales tax revenue they receive from customers. That provision in the tax law in Pennsylvania and… Continue reading

Victories

This is the first in a series of blog posts assessing the 2016-17 budget and the budget negotiation process from PBPC and its allies. It’s hard to be a progressive in Pennsylvania. We think of ourselves as a modern, Northeastern state on a par with Massachusetts and New York, Connecticut and New Jersey. But when it comes to state politics, we find ourselves looking with envy at those states with their progressive taxes and higher (and much more equal) spending on education and human services than here at home. And it’s gotten worse in recent years as right-wing extremists have taken hold of one of our political parties. This year is no different. I’ve already complained about an appropriations bill that does not invest enough in education and human services and the environment and a tax bill that relies too much on one-shot rather than recurring revenue and makes some… Continue reading

A Budget Balanced in Name Only

Finally, with the passage of a revenue bill to fund the appropriates bill passed last wee, we can say the 2016-2017 budget is done. But whether it was a success or not, is very much in doubt. The budget deficit is, technically closed. New projected revenues of $1.3 billion have been enacted. But as the following table shows, over half of the new revenue is non-recurring. That is, it is one-time revenues that will be available only this year and not in future years. That means we will start the 2017-2018 budget year already more than $700 million in deficit. New Revenue in 2016-17  (in millions of dollars) Recurring Revenue Non-recurring revenue Cigarette Tax 431 Tax amnesty 100 E-Cigarettes 13 Internet gaming 100 Smokeless Tobacco 48 Liquor licenses 149 Roll you own 3 Casino license fee-Philadelphia 50 Cap sales tax vendor discount 56 Table games license fee 25 Sales tax… Continue reading

Statement On the General Assembly Passing a Revenue Bill (HB 1198)

Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center Director Marc Stier made the following statement on the General Assembly Passing a Revenue Bill (HB 1198): “The General Assembly finally acted today to meet its constitutional responsibility by voting to raise the $1.3 billion in revenues needed to fund the recently passed appropriations law. But while the revenue package may technically balance the budget for 2016-17, in three respects it does not solve the long term fiscal problems of Pennsylvania.   “First, too much revenue ($709 million) comes from one-time rather than recurring sources ($627 million). As a result, the state’s long term structural deficit has not been closed. Next year will bring another debate about how to fund the government over the long term. “This problem is exacerbated by a second one: the revenue package relies too heavily on dubious sources. Expected revenues from liquor privatization, internet gaming, the license fee for a… Continue reading

Statement on Gov. Wolf’s Decision to Allow the Appropriations Bill to Become Law

Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center Director Marc Stier made the following statement on Governor Wolf’s decision to allow the appropriations bill to become law: “Governor Wolf announced that he will let the general fund appropriation bill passed last week become law without his signature if the General Assembly does not pass a revenue bill that fully funds the spending it calls for. “This is an unfortunate, yet reasonable, response to a difficult situation created by the unwillingness of extremists among House Republicans to agree to a revenue package.   “Given the ongoing difficulty of securing an agreement with the extremist faction of the Republican party to fund the government at an adequate level, it was reasonable for Governor Wolf not to risk vetoing the appropriation bill in whole or part. There is no guarantee that spending he vetoed in an already-austere budget would be passed again by the House of… Continue reading