Author: Marc Stier

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Statement: What We Are Looking for in a Budget Agreement

  By Blog post, Penn Policy Center, Statement

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on July 1, 2024. The Pennsylvania state budget is now officially late. By all reports, however, House and Senate negotiators, as well as the governor’s office, are working diligently to reach an agreement. We are not concerned by a brief delay as we know that the issues under consideration are complex and that necessary compromises are difficult in a divided government. We do want to set out some criteria by which we will evaluate a successful compromise. Enactment of a plan to meet our constitutional and moral responsibility to fully and fairly fund our schools, along the lines proposed by the Basic Education Funding Commission and with first-year funding at the level proposed by Governor Shapiro. A limited tax cut directed toward the Pennsylvanians who most suffer from our upside-down tax system, ideally by instituting a state piggyback on the federal earned income tax cut. Enactment and funding of the Grow PA program which would provide scholarships of $5,000 to Pennsylvanians attending… Continue reading

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No, Joe Biden is not demented. Not even close.

  By 2024, Elections

Next time you are in a conversation at a meeting, listen to how other people talk. Very few people talk in complete sentences and coherent paragraphs. Most of us start sentences, double back, often get a bit lost in the middle and then find our way to the end. We stumble over words. And our sentences don’t track in full paragraphs. Some of us, especially if we have had experience public speaking can do better. I can do pretty well most of the time, unless I’m a little tired and then it is really hard. Even Obama was not perfect much of the time. (You know who was perfect? Paul Warnke, the foreign policy specialist in the 70s and 80s. He spoke slowly and deliberately in complete paragraphs. And G.D.H. Cole, the British Socialist. That’s about the only two I’ve ever seen or heard who could do that.) Biden is… Continue reading

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Why it’s so hard to debate a gaslighting moron. And how to do it the right way.

  By 2024, Elections, Elections and Voting

Part I: Why it’s so hard to debate a gaslighting moron. I was on the debate team in high school. (I know, you are shocked!) And I was pretty successful in my first varsity year as a junior. I left high school so I never had a second year, but my former teammates were extremely successful that year. The hardest debates I had were not with the well prepared teams that made sensible, plausible arguments. I knew how to question and rebut them. Sometimes we couldn’t quite overcome them. Far more often we did. The really hard debates were the ones with teams who had no idea what they were doing. They would put forward a number of seemingly random, outlandish ideas backed not by reasons evidence but by absurd notions and false claims they pulled out of the air. Sometimes debaters who did this actually had a nice speaking… Continue reading

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Democrats: Stop the bedwetting. You aren’t helping.

  By 2024, Elections, Elections and Voting, Politics

Democrats: Stop the bedwetting. You aren’t helping. It was obviously from the beginning that Biden was not at his best. And I knew that it would freak Democrats out. Here is why. Middle class liberals really hate the fact of political disagreement. They believe that since they are intelligent and good-hearted, everyone should agree with them. And they are shocked and bewildered when they face strident disagreement. The first reaction is to deny it. So when, seven years ago, I first started to talk about Trump’s fascist appeal, most people thought I was hysterical. And then when strong disagreement continues, middle class liberals worry and lose confidence in themselves. And that happens even though poll after poll shows that on issue after issue the majority of people in this county are on our side. This is one of the reasons that Democrats in office are so reluctant to act on… Continue reading

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A missed opportunity, not a disaster; what the polls are showing about the debate.

  By 2024, Elections and Voting, Politics

Two post-debate poll results that allow for comparison to pre-debate polls. Almost no change compared to polls before the debate. Ipsos: Biden down 1.5; Trump up .4; Biden ahead by 2.8 Morning Consult: Biden up 1; Trump unchanged, Biden ahead by 1 Other post-debate polls show a very close race. No evidence that the debate cause a significant drop in Biden’s support. Data for progress Trump 48-Biden 45; no recent previous polls Survey USA Trump 45- Biden 43; no recent previous poll Polls do show most people think Trump won the debate whatever that means and more are worried about Biden’s age. But no sharp changes. Why didn’t the debate have more impact? 1. Biden’s age was already baked into the result. As I pointed out above, the real harm is that Biden didn’t do anything to change concerns about this age. But those concerns were not much greater and… Continue reading

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Would another candidate be stronger than Biden?

  By 2024, Elections and Voting

Data for Progress–a really good pollster I’ve worked with a few times in the past–has a new poll showing that no other Democratic candidate does any better against Trump than Biden. Two important notes: 1. The undecideds go up a both D and Trump drop a bit with other candidates. Many of the alternatives to Biden are not well known. So they would have a a greater opportunity to pick up more support among undecideds than Biden does. If Democrats chose someone I think is a really good candidate, like Gretchen Witmer, I think that as she became better known (and assuming no skeletons we don’t know about) she’d win by five points, despite the handicap of being a woman. (Most sexist aren’t voting for Democrats no matter what gender they are.) 2. Trump’s support is pretty static. He tops out at 48%. That suggests that those undecideds are not… Continue reading

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The Time Is Right for PA to Finally Raise its Minimum Wage | OPINION

  By Blog post, Op-ed, Penn Policy Center, Published Op-Eds

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on June 30, 2024. Originally published in the Pennsylvania Capital-Star By Marc Stier House Bill 1500, co-sponsored by Democratic Reps. Jason Dawkins of Philadelphia and Patty Kim of Dauphin County, would increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour over three years and then create annual increases in the future based on the cost of living. While the bill, which is now before the House Appropriations Committee, is not perfect, it would provide enormous benefits to Pennsylvania workers and Pennsylvania’s economy. The legislation has faced the usual arguments made against raising the minimum wage. But what the critics seem not to have noticed is that those arguments make little sense under current economic conditions, if they ever did. Indeed, it’s hard not to conclude that this is the best possible time to raise the minimum wage for both workers and businesses. Raising the minimum wage is almost certain… Continue reading

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What Happens If Biden Steps Down

  By 2024, Elections, Politics

I mentioned in a previous post that whether it makes sense for Biden to withdraw depends on what we think the process of replacing him will look like and who the likely candidate would be. Here are my thoughts about that first part. To begin with, the only way the nomination is opened up is if luminaries like Obama and Clymer, along with Jill Biden can convince the president to withdraw. I think that’s unlikely. If that does happen, then there is going to be a wide open process involving 6 or 7 candidates that will likely involve some debate as well as many meetings with groups of delegates over a six to eight week period. I imagine that Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsome, and Gretchen Witmer will run. Josh Shapiro, Cory Booker, Amy Kobuchar and Elizabeth Warren may run as well. Who knows, maybe Bernie Sanders will jump… Continue reading

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School Funding in Pennsylvania Remains Inadequate and Inequitable

  By Policy Paper

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on June 27, 2024. CLICK TO VIEW IN PDF READER. June 26, 2024 adequacy-and-equity-2024Download Continue reading

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Ed. Bd. Memo: A State Earned Income Tax Credit Should Be Part of a Budget Deal in 2024

  By Blog post, Editorial Board Memo, Penn Policy Center

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on June 27, 2024. To: Members of the General Assembly, editorial board members, and political reporters From: Marc Stier, Executive Director, Pennsylvania Policy Center Subject: What we are looking for in a budget agreement Date: July 1, 2024 The Pennsylvania state budget is now officially late. By all reports, however, House and Senate negotiators, as well as the governor’s office, are working diligently to reach an agreement. We are not concerned by a brief delay as we know that the issues under consideration are complex and that necessary compromises are difficult in a divided government. We do want to set out some criteria by which we will evaluate a successful compromise. Enactment of a plan to meet our constitutional and moral responsibility to fully and fairly fund our schools, along the lines proposed by the Basic Education Funding Commission and with first-year funding at the level proposed by Governor Shapiro. A limited tax cut directed toward the Pennsylvanians who most suffer from… Continue reading