I’ve been following the Pennsylvania polling quite closely, but not primarily because I’m concerned about the Presidential election. If we all keep doing our jobs, Obama is going to win Pennsylvania.
What’s really intriguing me however is how well Obama is doing in the suburban counties around Philadelphia. According to the Quinnipiac poll released at the beginning of the week, Obama is up 57-39 in Montgomery, Delaware, Chester, and Bucks counties.
That is putting us into the realm in which Obama could have long coattail for candidates down ballot, including those running for State Representative.
The Burbs Are Turning Blue
We have known for some time that the Philly suburbs are going Democratic. Partly this is a matter of greater demographic diversity (and more ex-Philadelphians) in the suburbs. Even more, however, it is the consequence of middle class Republicans realizing that the party has been captured by zealots whose right-wing views on issues such as abortion and birth control, the teaching of evolution, tolerance for gays, and immigration is very far from their own. And, in addition, many of suburban professionals and managers have progressive economic views because they work in the public sector or for non-profits or are doctors and lawyers connected to those sectors of the economy.
The suburbs have been voting Democratic in Presidential elections at least since 1992. The question has been when that would filter down to state row offices. It’s been happening slowly but with important implications for our state. Some of the best, new, progressive state representatives come from the Philly suburbs—Josh Shapiro, Mike Gerber, Rick Taylor, Barbra McIlvaine-Smith, Bryan Lentz, Chris King, and others.
Now, with an Obama suburban landslide in the making, a few open seats, and some good candidates, we have a chance take another major step forward this year.
It’s Critical To Elect More Democratic State Representatives
And this is a really critical to do it. Democrats hold the State House by only one seat. And we are likely to lose one or two Democratic seats in the western part of the state, thanks to the Bonusgate scandal. Control over the State House is very important. Many of the progressive policies that have been adopted in this state the last few years—such as new transit funding, increased funding for education, some health care reform measures, and a bond issue for green development—would have been impossible if Democrats did not have the votes, and perhaps even more importantly, control over committees and the flow of business on the floor of the House.
In addition, some new progressive members should help reenergize the reformers in the House.
At a time when taking back the Senate is a long term project, it is critical that we extend our majority in the House to provide some balance to a Senate controlled by increasingly right wing Republicans.
Volunteer for a State Rep Candidate AND Obama
So, while you are looking for places to work Sunday, Monday, and Election Day, I suggest you go out to the suburbs (or Brendan Boyle’s district in Philly) and knock on doors for some of these legislative candidates. You will be helping Obama at the same time.
And if you got out of the stock market early and don’t know where to invest your cash, might I suggest you donate to these candidates?
I’m going to list and comment on a few of the races where we have a good chance to win and give you information about how to volunteer and contribute to them.
First, we need to hold one Senate seat and protect three freshmen state representatives.
SD 17: Current State Representative Daylin Leach is likely to succeed retiring Democrat Senator Connie Williams. Daylin is one of the brightest and most progressive Democrats in Harrisburg and someone who can help lead a revival of the Democratic Senate caucus. Contribute here. And volunteer here.
HD 152: Rick Taylor took a Republican seat two years ago. He is the top target for Republicans this year. But he is a strong progressive and incredibly hard working and I’m confident he will win with your help. You can contact his office to volunteer by calling 215-774-9615 or e-mailing info@taylorforpa.com. Or you can contribute online at www.TaylorForPA.com
HD 156: Barbara McIlvaine-Smith won by a handful of votes two years ago. She is in a tough rematch campaign but her good record in office should give her an advantage. You can volunteer or contribute at http://www.smith156.org/,
HD 142: Chris King took another seat from the Rs in the last election. He should win reelection but could use your help. I’ll get contact information for his campaign tomorrow.
Then we need to pick up some seats.
HD 170 is one of four Philadelphia seats still held by Republicans. Brendan Boyle, who is a bright and energetic young man, certainly deserve to win and should do so despite (or maybe because) of the sleazy campaign run by his opponent and financed by John Perzel. You can donate and volunteer at http://www.voteboyle.com/
HD 172 And speaking of the prince of darkness, Perzel is being challenged by Rich Costello, former head of the FOP. Perzel will be tough to beat but the district is barely Republican and, especially if you live in the area, it makes sense to keep Perzel occupied with his backyard. http://www.richcostello.com
HD 61: Frank X Custer is long time associate of Joe Hoeffel who is running a strong campaign against Kate Harper who is far to the right of her Montgomery county district. This seat should be ours. Volunteer at the campaign office 1601 South Valley Forge Rd. Lansdale, Pa 19446. Let the campaign know you are coming by emailing info@FrankCuster.org. And you can contribute to Frank’s campaign at www.FrankCuster.org
HD 70 Matt Bradford is running a good campaign against Republican freshman Jay Moyer who barely won the seat two years ago. And Matt has Josh Richard working for him! You can volunteer by calling his ampaign’s headquarters at 610-272-5462. Donate to his campaign at http://www.matthewbradford.org/
HD 152 Lisa Romaniello is running an increasingly strong race against a freshman Republicans in this Montgomery County race in a seat and has one of the best young political operatives in the region working for her. Contact Antoinette@lisaromaniello.com to volunteer and go to http://lisaromaniello.com/ to make a contribution.
HD 162 John DeFrancisco, who is a long time labor leader, is well positioned to take a open seat in Delaware County now held by a Republican. You can volunteer and contribute at www.defranciscoforstaterep.com.
HD 149 Tim Briggs should keep this Montgomery County seat, which was previously held by Daylin Leach, in the Democratic family. Find out about volunteer and contribution opportunities at http://www.timbriggs.org/
HD 157 Paul Drucker has a very good chance to pick up a Chester County seat now held by a retiring Republican. His website is www.votepauldrucker.com/. You can get contribution and donation information there.
HD 163 If Kevin Lee is elected he will be the openly gay member of the General Assembly in this Delaware County district. He is someone who I have seen to stand up for what is right no matter the consequences. He’s got a tough race against a long time incumbent but with Obama doing so well, anything can happen in a seat that we will eventually win sooner or later. Find out about opportunities to help make it sooner at www.kevinlee2008.com/
Some of these pickups are longer shots than others. But with Obama pulling in more Democratic registered voters and getting some Republians to vote for him, we are going to far better in these House races than anyone could have imagined six months ago.
How much better depends on you.