OPINION: What Would a Second Trump Term Mean for Our Taxes?

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on October 17, 2024. Originally published at The Keystone. Donald Trump doesn’t like to talk much about the public policies he would propose if he becomes president again. To the despair of his own political advisors, he would rather make juvenile, personal attacks against Kamala Harris. But maybe Trump knows what he is doing. For if you look at the policy proposals he and his closest advisors have actually supported, you’ll see that they would be disastrous for working people. That’s especially true when it comes to taxes. Here’s what we can surmise from what he has said and done about his likely tax policies and how they would affect Pennsylvanians. First, he would seek to reauthorize the 2017 Trump tax cut law, which expires in 2025. The tax cut was so tilted in favor of the wealthy, rather than workers, that it had… Continue reading

Recommendations for Division 21 24

Here is our November 2024 election flier. Note that the official state website has not updated our polling location to the Lingelbach School. This will be done by October 25, 2024. Click here to read full-screen or download. Continue reading

Some initial thoughts on the Male Malaise

I heard a fascinating podcast on my drive to Philly: Ezra Klein talking to Richard Reeves who wrote Of Boys and Men in 2022. It’s perhaps the most detailed / data focused book on the problems of men. I have not read it yet but now will do so soon.   The main outlines of the “male malaise” are probably well known to you: boys do worse in school than girls, are less likely to go to college, and less likely to graduate. They are less likely to hold full-time jobs in their 20s or be on career tracks. As Reeves say, they tend to zig-zag more than women. And then there are the psychological issues: Men are less happy, lonelier, more likely to become substance abusers, more likely to commit suicide, and even more likely to die of COVID women. What is not clear to me is the causes… Continue reading

Sex, Gender, and Athletics

The controversy about the Khelif-Carini fight is, I believe, a terribly missed opportunity for learning something about not just gender and sexuality but about how human practice and thought fits the world. Or at least, that’s my conclusion after reading and thinking a lot about it yesterday and writing down some of my thoughts today. Given that I think I have learned something from some of that thinking,  I want to share it here.  Four preliminary points First, some of what I Iearned—about the biology of sex differences–comes from a post by the biologist Rebecca R Helm. You should read it. I don’t know much more about those issues so some of what I say can be a misinterpretation of what she wrote. Second, this post is not about the Khelif-Carini case. At the end of it I make some suggestions about general rules for determining when women with an… Continue reading

Analysis of the Fiscal Year 2024–25 Pennsylvania Budget – Part One

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on July 26, 2024. VIEW IN A PDF READER, PRINT, OR DOWNLOAD.   Loading Viewer…     Continue reading

Penn Policy Statement on President Biden’s Withdrawal

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on July 21, 2024. Joe Biden’s truly selfless act today exemplifies the authentic leadership that has made him the most effective Democratic President since Franklin Roosevelt. Under very difficult political circumstances, with a bare majority in Congress and in an extremely divided country, his legislative record was extraordinary. In just four years, President Biden led the way in the enactment of an economic recovery program that brought us back from the pandemic recession and led to the fastest economic growth and lowest unemployment rate in the world, as well as a relatively quick return to slow price growth. the boldest program to address climate change in the world. the largest plan to rebuild our public infrastructure since the New Deal. an effort to support a high-technology economy that is built on well-trained union workers. a health insurance plan that has reduced costs for hundreds… Continue reading

The best, uncertain case for Harris

I hope this is my last long post on the Democratic candidate for president. I’m going to do something here that may surprise some of you. I’m going to make the best argument I can for why I think Biden should step down. And in doing so, I’m going to respond to some of the claims I made the other day against him doing so. I’m doing this for a few reasons. One is that this is how I think. I always look at issues from a number of sides. Another related one is that I’m still remain unsure about what the right path forward is and the only way I’m going to be sure is by making the best case on both sides. And frankly, none of you who have been arguing with me the post has done a very good job of making that case or responding to… Continue reading

The message not the candidate is the big problem

Postcript, May 2025: I wrote this a few weeks before Biden stepped down. On the whole, I think that was a good thing because his inability to mount a vigorous campaign was a bigger problem than I realized at the time. But I still think the rest of this piece is right. Harris ran a good campaign in normal circumstances. That she lost by much less in battleground states, the only places where there was a campaign, shows this. But she did not develop a message and narrative that address the deeper frustrations most Americans have with their economic circumstances. Doing so could have helped her deal what became the the strong negative vote  that was mainly due to frustration with inflation and the border. In  an earlier piece, I argued that the debate about whether Biden should remain the Democratic nominee for President is missing the point.  It’s based… Continue reading

Response to the 2024–2025 State Budget: Education Funding

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on July 11, 2024. July 11, 2024 Governor Shapiro and the members of the General Assembly have had about 18 months to respond to the Commonwealth Court ruling that Pennsylvania’s system of funding K–12 education is unconstitutional. And Pennsylvania politicians have had decades to recognize that far too many low-income and Black and brown schoolchildren have not received an adequate education, which has limited their opportunities and denied the Commonwealth the full flowering of their talents and abilities. The K–12 budget that we expect to be enacted soon recognizes the problem. But it does not put the state on a path to solving it. It recognizes the problem in two ways. First, for the first time in our history, the school code embraces a formula that quantifies the problem. The school code says that school districts need $4.5 billion in new funding to adequately… Continue reading

Response to the 2024–25 PA State Budget — Education Funding

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on July 11, 2024. July 11, 2024 Governor Shapiro and the members of the General Assembly have had about 18 months to respond to the Commonwealth Court ruling that Pennsylvania’s system of funding K–12 education is unconstitutional. And Pennsylvania politicians have had decades to recognize that far too many low-income and Black and brown schoolchildren have not received an adequate education, which has limited their opportunities and denied the Commonwealth the full flowering of their talents and abilities. The K–12 budget that we expect to be enacted soon recognizes the problem. But it does not put the state on a path to solving it. It recognizes the problem in two ways. First, for the first time in our history, the school code embraces a formula that quantifies the problem. The school code says that school districts need $4.5 billion in new funding to adequately… Continue reading