Don’t Stress About 2016

Here’s why I’m not stressing about the Democratic nomination. To win the nomination, Sanders has to do what he needs to do to win the general election: expand the electorate, turn out young people, convince the base of the party, Blacks, to support him, and win over white working class Democrats who sometimes vote Republican while not scaring off moderate Democrats with his tax and spending ideas. And he needs a volunteer base twice the size of Obama’a. If he does all that, he’ll be the next President. If not, Clinton will be the nominee and Sanders will enthusiastically support her and encourage his volunteers to work for her. Most of the people Sanders has energized will do so, if only because of the Republican nominee. And she will be elected president. I don’t see a bad ending here unless the Clinton and Sanders supporters adopt the tactics of Republicans… Continue reading

Understanding the Numbers in a Budget Crisis

This Reports and Briefing Papers compares the three budget propasls comimng out of Harrisburg: Governor Wolf‰’s budget proposal, the Republican budget, and the bi-partisan budget. The report focuses especially on the differences and similarities among these three budgets with respect to proposed General Fund spending as a share of the state economy and spending on two key components of the budget, Pre-K-12 education funding and human services funding. Click here to print or read full screen.  Continue reading

Rep. Grove’s Diatribe Was Off-Key

Originally published in the York Daily Record, January 13, 2016 It’s always funny and sometimes sad when national entertainment trends filter down to our local communities. The rapper or metal band in our community may have picked up some of the moves and rhythms of the big stars, but they seem to be pale imitations at our local venues. That’s how Rep. Seth Grove’s diatribe against Governor Tom Wolf comes across. Grove wants to sound like one of the agitated and aggrieved conservative radio stars or Republican presidential candidates (who are hard to tell apart these days). Like them, he seeks to shock us and motivate his followers with personal attacks. Like them, he seeks to create a rhetorical whirlwind that hides inconvenient facts. But his performance seems off-key here in Pennsylvania. (And, to his credit, he doesn’t seem entirely comfortable with it, either.) Gov. Tom Wolf is not some distant, high-handed… Continue reading