Memo: Another Blue Shift Coming
TO: Editorial Board Writers, Columnists, and Other Interested Parties FROM: Marc Stier, Director, Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center SUBJECT: Another blue shift coming in PA election returns DATE: November 7, 2022 In late October of 2020, we released a paper titled, “2020 Election Expectations: High Numbers of Mail-Votes and the Blue Shift.” We explained that due to Democrats being far more likely than Republicans to vote by mail, the initial count of the votes on Election Day would show Republicans ahead in many state-wide and local races—but that as mail ballots were counted, there would be a “blue shift” as vote tallies showed Democrats’ number of votes catching up to, and in many cases surpassing, the Republicans’. We warned that Donald Trump and his followers would use the blue shift to buttress their claims that the 2020 election was rigged—claims that began long before Election Day. Our predictions about… Continue reading