New Census Data Shows Failure and Success of Pennsylvania Public Policy

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on October 31, 2024. The annual release of census data is often a guide to policy success and failure at both the national and state levels. This year is no exception. The American Community Survey data released yesterday shows that Pennsylvania’s failure to raise the minimum wage has led to our state falling behind the rest of the nation in measures of poverty and household income. But our early participation in the Medicaid expansion, along with new federal subsidies in the health care insurance marketplace has led to a reduction in the percentage of people uninsured in our state. Poverty data points to the continuing failure of Pennsylvania to raise the minimum wage. The standard poverty rate in the United States fell from 11.5% to 11.1% between 2022 and 2023. But it rose slightly in Pennsylvania from 11.8% to 12% although that increase was… Continue reading

What Project 2025 Means for Pennsylvania Taxpayers

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on October 31, 2024. by Marc Stier If the federal government in Donald Trump’s potential second term were to adopt the tax proposals in Project 2025, low- and moderate-income Pennsylvanians would pay far more in taxes than they do now and the top 1% would pay much less. That should worry Pennsylvanians. For, if we follow the letter of what Project 2025 proposes, a family of four at the state median family income level of $119,000 would pay an additional $7,167 in taxes. And a family of four with an annual income of $50,000 would pay an additional $7,031 in federal taxes. But a family of four that just breaks into the top 1% of Pennsylvania families, with $750,000 in income, would pay $12,675 less in federal taxes. If, contrary to what Project 2025 explicitly says, we assume that earned income and child tax… Continue reading

Fascism Is Not a Threat. It’s Already Here.

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on October 29, 2024. I’ve been warning about the dangers of Donald Trump’s fascism since he announced his first bid for president in June of 2015. Few people took that warning, or my escalating concern about the fascist features of Trump’s politics throughout his presidency, seriously. Even after January 6, people said my warnings were exaggerated or even hysterical. Now, calling Trump a fascist and talking about the threat of fascism is commonplace. But it still understates the danger. For fascism is no longer a threat. It’s here. Fascism is a major force in our politics. Fascism is a set of ideas that are entirely contrary to the foundations of the American Republic, which is why it is dangerous. It’s also a set of political practices that is already found in our country and threaten to destroy it. That Trump and Trumpism embrace fascist… Continue reading

The October Surprise Is a Booming Economy

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on October 29, 2024. Election watchers are always waiting for the “October Surprise” that could have a last-minute effect on the election. It could be that the hateful attack on Puerto Rico and Latinos that was the worst of many examples of bigotry in Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally will be the October Surprise of this election. As 8% of the Pennsylvania electorate is Latino and the majority of them are of Puerto Rican descent, this event may cost Trump Pennsylvania. A shift of only 5% of the Puerto Rican vote from Trump to Harris could add up to 30,000 votes which could be her margin of victory. But there is another October Surprise that has been gradually brewing and is likely to get some attention the weekend before the election: we are in the midst of an economic boom. Tomorrow, on October 30th,… Continue reading

Fear Donald Trump — Not Immigrants

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on October 23, 2024. Demonizing and stoking fear of immigrants is at the center of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign this year, as it was in 2016. Yet what Americans should really be afraid of is Trump’s opposition to immigration. For immigrants make a huge contribution to our economy and our well-being, as they have for our entire history. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t focus our attention on creating a better, fairer immigration system. We should want immigrants to enter but in a controlled way. President Biden and Vice President Harris worked closely with Republicans in Congress to frame legislation to create a well-funded and regulated immigration process. But Donald Trump demanded that Republicans reject the plan because he cares more about dividing and distracting us by blaming and shaming immigrants instead of solving problems. The truth is that people who have come to this… Continue reading

Who Runs Pennsylvania Makes a Difference

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on October 23, 2024. This is the last week in which Pennsylvania’s 2023–24 General Assembly is likely to be in Harrisburg. And the pattern we have seen for the last two years is once again evident. The Democratic-controlled House passes legislation, with bipartisan support, that addresses serious problems in our commonwealth. And the Republican-controlled Senate once again sits on its hands and does nothing. This week, the House passed HB 2565, sponsored by Representative Steve Samuelson, a bill that provides tax credits for clean hydrogen energy production, which would spur economic development and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while also providing tax credits for semi-conductor and biomedical manufacturing. Seventeen Republicans voted for it. It passed HB 2625, sponsored by Representative Ed Neilson, to fund public transit systems in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and thirty other smaller cities. Ten Republicans voted for it. It passed HB 2557, sponsored… Continue reading

Another ‘Blue Shift’ Is Coming

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on October 23, 2024.   MEMO: Another Blue Shift Coming TO: Editorial Board Writers, Columnists, and Other Interested Parties FROM: Marc Stier and Erica Freeman, Pennsylvania Policy Center SUBJECT: Another “blue shift” coming in PA election returns  DATE: October 23, 2024 In late October of 2020, we wrote for the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center a paper titled, “2020 Election Expectations: High Numbers of Mail-Votes and the Blue Shift.” We explained that due to Democrats being far more likely than Republicans to vote by mail, the initial count of the votes on Election Day would show Republicans ahead in many state-wide and local races—but that as mail ballots were counted, there would be a “blue shift” as vote tallies showed Democrats’ number of votes catching up to, and in many cases surpassing, the Republicans’. We warned that Donald Trump and his followers would use the… Continue reading

OPINION: What Would a Second Trump Term Mean for Our Taxes?

Originally published at Pennsylvania Policy Center on October 17, 2024. Originally published at The Keystone. Donald Trump doesn’t like to talk much about the public policies he would propose if he becomes president again. To the despair of his own political advisors, he would rather make juvenile, personal attacks against Kamala Harris. But maybe Trump knows what he is doing. For if you look at the policy proposals he and his closest advisors have actually supported, you’ll see that they would be disastrous for working people. That’s especially true when it comes to taxes. Here’s what we can surmise from what he has said and done about his likely tax policies and how they would affect Pennsylvanians. First, he would seek to reauthorize the 2017 Trump tax cut law, which expires in 2025. The tax cut was so tilted in favor of the wealthy, rather than workers, that it had… Continue reading

Recommendations for Division 21 24

Here is our November 2024 election flier. Note that the official state website has not updated our polling location to the Lingelbach School. This will be done by October 25, 2024. Click here to read full-screen or download. Continue reading