{"id":9770,"date":"2022-11-03T13:44:38","date_gmt":"2022-11-03T17:44:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/?p=9770"},"modified":"2022-11-03T13:44:38","modified_gmt":"2022-11-03T17:44:38","slug":"if-you-do-your-part-things-are-looking-good-for-tuesday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/?p=9770","title":{"rendered":"If you do your part, things are looking good for Tuesday"},"content":{"rendered":"
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I’m not at all certain about what is doing to happen on Tuesday. But I’m becoming more confident that IF YOU ALL DO YOUR PART–knocking on doors and getting out to vote yourself–the results will be good.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Two strong pieces of evidence.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\nFirst, a recent poll of people 19-29<\/a>\u00a0, shows that people that age (1) say the will turn out at rates equal to 2018 and, in battlegrounds states like PA, at rates 5 points higher than 2018. And they support Democrats for Congress by a 2-1 margin.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\nSecond, to judge by who are the new voters, and who sought and are returning mail ballots in PA (and elsewhere) women are coming out to vote very heavily to save abortion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I know the polls are close everywhere. But the results of polling in close elections at this stage of the game are heavily dependent on estimates of who is going to vote. Those estimates are mostly based on previous voting history and are hard to update for the current election.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\nThey underestimated the GOP turnout in 2016 and 2020 and the polls then thus predicted a Clinton victory (and a much stronger Biden victory.)<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\nThis year I believe they are underestimating Democratic turnout.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\nSo no throwing up of your hands. If we vote and ensure that others do, we are going to OK in Pennsylvania and across the country.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\nBUT YOU HAVE TO DO YOUR PART!<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’m not at all certain about what is doing to happen on Tuesday. But I’m becoming more confident that IF YOU ALL DO YOUR PART–knocking on doors and getting out to vote yourself–the results will be good. Two strong pieces of evidence. First, a recent poll of people 19-29\u00a0, shows that people that age (1) say the will turn out at rates equal to 2018 and, in battlegrounds states like PA, at rates 5 points higher than 2018. And they support Democrats for Congress by a 2-1 margin. Second, to judge by who are the new voters, and who sought and are returning mail ballots in PA (and elsewhere) women are coming out to vote very heavily to save abortion. I know the polls are close everywhere. But the results of polling in close elections at this stage of the game are heavily dependent on estimates of who is going\u2026 Continue reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1896,"featured_media":9771,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[229],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/depositphotos_59981407-stock-photo-hands-holding-the-word-vote.webp?fit=600%2C447&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p35YuU-2xA","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9770"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1896"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9770"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9770\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9772,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9770\/revisions\/9772"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9771"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}