{"id":802,"date":"2009-10-20T07:15:55","date_gmt":"2009-10-20T01:15:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.stier.net\/?p=802"},"modified":"2011-07-23T22:04:53","modified_gmt":"2011-07-23T22:04:53","slug":"if-you-keep-the-faith-we-are-going-to-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/?p=802","title":{"rendered":"If you keep the faith, we are going to win"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">The last committee hurdle has been jumped. The Senate Finance Committee has reported a bill. It&#8217;s not great. It&#8217;s not we want. But it moves us a step closer to the real reform we must get in 2009.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">I want to give you some idea of how we are going to get the reforms we want this year.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\"><strong>What we know and don&#8217;t know<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">Now if anyone tells you he knows what will happen in Congress this year on health care, he or she is not to be trusted. As Yogi Berra once put it, predictions are hard, especially about the future. And they are especially hard in politics, where so many factors\u2014ideology, interest, ambition, and skill\u2014play a role in determining what happens, especially on issues as difficult and complicated as health care.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">But I do have a sense of how things will play out this year and I want to give you one scenario, not because I&#8217;m really sure about it, but because I do think you have to be prepared for the next two months.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\"><strong><!--more--><br \/>\nYou have to keep the faith against the strategy of the insurance companies and right-wing ideologues.<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">And the reason you have to be prepared is that this is not likely to be a pretty process and there will be moments when you may be upset and frustrated. It is absolutely critical that, at that point, you not give up hope and that you keep fighting.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">You need to keep in mind that, all along, a key part of the strategy of those who oppose health care reform has been to discourage us by dragging the process out and making it seem as if we could not win. (By the way, Wendell Potter, the former CIGNA communications executive, confirmed that this is exactly what the insurance companies planned to do.)<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">That&#8217;s why the insurance companies and ideological conservatives did everything they could to delay action at the end of July.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">That&#8217;s why they shoveled money into the hands of the right wing front groups that came out to disrupt Congressional town halls in August.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">That&#8217;s why they keep having their flacks say that the public health insurance plan is dead.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">And that&#8217;s why they released a report last week that opposed the Senate Finance Committee bill, even though it is far too favorable to insurance companies.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">I know that each of these moment have been frustrating for you.<br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\"><strong>Why progressives are prone to frustration.<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">Indeed, I think we progressives are prone to frustration in a way that the conservatives are not. We know that the policies we support are morally right and economically sensible and not only will benefit the vast majority of Americans but are supported by them. So when the process moves slowly or when there is a temporary setback, we start to lose hope. And we wonder where we have gone wrong.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">We forget that it&#8217;s not just good and popular ideas that create public policies. We forget that conservatives are able to use their shameless lies, the immense financial resources they have for organizing and campaign contributions, and all the feature of the American political system that slow down action\u2014bicameralism, the committee system, the filibuster\u2014to block us.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">We also forget that not everyone agrees with us, that people brought up in political traditions different than our own, find some of the conservative arguments, and even their lies,\u00a0plausible. So we are shocked and disappointed when opposition arises to our ideas. And we start to question our own political strategy and message.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">You should remember that the people who designed this strategy never believed\u00a0that the kind of progressive change we support was going to be easy or that, with our anti-government traditions, all Americans would embrace our ideas.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">The conservatives, on the other hand,\u00a0know their ideas aren&#8217;t popular beyond the minority of the minority party. So they don&#8217;t give up when they see little popular support for their ideas. They know that they have to rely on relentless organizing and shameless messaging to advance their policy proposals and block ours. And they just keep going no matter what.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">That&#8217;s what we have to learn from them. We have to keep going, push harder and harder, and never, ever give up.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\"><strong>What&#8217;s Wrong with the Senate Finance Committee Bill<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">And we have to do everything we can to do better than the bill that came out of the Senate Finance Committee. As I predicted long ago, it is the worst of the five bills that have come out of committee.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">It doesn&#8217;t have a public health insurance option.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">It doesn&#8217;t require all employers to provide insurance to their employees to avoid a fine or tax. Indeed, it has provisions that will discourage employers from hiring low-wage workers.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">It doesn&#8217;t guarantee that insurance sold in the exchange will be affordable. The House bills and the Senate HELP committee bill set lower limits on the percentage of income people have to pay for premiums and for out-of-pocket expenses.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">It taxes so-called &#8220;Cadillac&#8221; insurance plans but defines them in a way that will tax the health insurance plans of many middle class families and union members. We prefer the tax burden to be placed on those with very high incomes as in the House bill, which puts most of the burden on families with over $1 million in income.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\"><strong>The Road from Here: Inching to Success<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">So here is one possible scenario about how we can get something much better than the Senate Finance Committee bill.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\"><em>Senate<\/em><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">The first step, which will take place in the next week or two, is for the Senate leadership to meld Senate Finance and Senate HELP Committee bills.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, has been moving closer and closer to becoming a real champion for health care reform. But he has to reach a balance between what he and we want and what he thinks he can get through the Senate right now.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">We would like to see the public option and the HELP Committee affordability and employer responsibility provisions in the melded bill. We expect that the bill that goes to the floor will be much better than the Senate Finance bill. But it probably will not have everything we want.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">In particular, in an effort to guarantee that the bill will have the sixty votes it will need at least twice to overcome a filibuster, there may be some compromise on the public option. There may be a trigger proposal that puts the public option into place only in states where insurance remains unaffordable. Or there may be a provision that allows states to opt out of the public health insurance plan.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">Something\u00a0similar could happen with other provisions.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">We don&#8217;t want any compromises over the public option or affordability or employer responsibility. And we are going to urge Senators to vote for an amendment that makes the bill closer to what we want and, in particular that creates a robust public option that can negotiate provider rates that are close to Medicare rates. Such proposals will, the CBO tells us, save a hundred million dollars over ten years.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">A robust public health insurance option will, we think, get a majority of the vote and possibly 54 or more votes. So will better employer responsibility and affordability provisions. But the public option and some of the other provisions we want may not have enough votes to get into the Senate Bill<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\"><em>House<\/em><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">On the House side, we think a very strong bill close to the bill that came out of the Ways and Means and Education and Labor Committees will be passed. That bill will have strong public option, good employer responsibility and affordability provisions, and a much more progressive tax plan than the Senate bill.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\"><em>Conference Committee<\/em><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">The House and Senate bills will then go to a conference committee. And here, precisely because of the majority votes in the Senate for a public option and other provisions we want, there will be an enormously strong case to make the bill look more like the House than the Senate bill. In particular, we think the public option will be in the conference committee bill.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\"><em>Back to the House and the Senate<\/em><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">The conference committee bill will then go back to the House, where it will undoubtedly pass.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">And then all eyes will turn to the Senate. We will not need all of the Democratic Senators to vote for the bill. But we will have to win one cloture vote to block a filibuster. And the pressure on Democratic Senators and\u00a0the two Maine Republicans\u00a0to vote to end a filibuster will be intense. For this one vote will determine<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">Whether we achieve the historic goal of providing quality affordable health care for all, a goal for which we have all worked so hard this year.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">Whether the Democratic party proves it can move this country in a progressive direction.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">Whether the Obama administration will be a success.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">The Senate Democratic leadership will put immense pressure on Democratic Senators.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">Major Senate campaign contributors will tell wavering Democratic Senators that they must vote for cloture.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">President Obama will, we hope, move at this to the forefront in the battle and use all his persuasive power and his control over so many things important to Senators to secure their votes.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">Most importantly, all of you will be\u2014as you have been throughout the process\u2014working as hard as you can to tell our Senators to do the right thing and take this historic step.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">And we will win.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\"><strong>What you have to do<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">This is only one possible scenario that leads to victory. There are others as well. All of them are similar\u00a0 in that we are likely to move step by step and, at times inch by inch, towards what we really want in the legislation. And that means we are going to have to keep fighting again and again even when we are frustrated by slow progress.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">None of these scenarios give us\u00a0a sure thing.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">But all of them presuppose a few things:<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">That you and people like you will not give up hope.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">That you and people like you will keep calling, writing, and emailing our Senators and members of Congress.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">That you and people like you will continue to take part in rallies and other events.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">That you and people like you will keep\u00a0phone banking into key Congressional districts and states.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">And that, as we move closer to the finish line, and more and more people want to take part in this effort, you and people like you will reach out to your friends, neighbors, and co-workers,\u00a0engage them in Health Care For America Now campaign and encourage them to take part in all these actions.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">There are no guarantees.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">But, if you do your part, I really do think we will win and enact legislation that will save thousands of lives a year and dramatically improve the well being of millions of working and middle class Americans.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">It won&#8217;t be the end of health care reform. It won&#8217;t create a perfect world. But this legislation not only will make things better for millions of us, it will create its own pressure to be expanded and improved. And it will re-legitimate the use of government to make our individual and collective lives better.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:black; font-family:Verdana; font-size:9pt\">And that&#8217;s no mean feat in American politics.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The last committee hurdle has been jumped. The Senate Finance Committee has reported a bill. It&#8217;s not great. It&#8217;s not we want. But it moves us a step closer to the real reform we must get in 2009. I want to give you some idea of how we are going to get the reforms we want this year. What we know and don&#8217;t know Now if anyone tells you he knows what will happen in Congress this year on health care, he or she is not to be trusted. As Yogi Berra once put it, predictions are hard, especially about the future. And they are especially hard in politics, where so many factors\u2014ideology, interest, ambition, and skill\u2014play a role in determining what happens, especially on issues as difficult and complicated as health care. But I do have a sense of how things will play out this year and I want\u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/?p=802\">Continue reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-health-care"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p35YuU-cW","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=802"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5778,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802\/revisions\/5778"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}