{"id":10988,"date":"2024-06-30T22:17:02","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T02:17:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/?p=10988"},"modified":"2024-06-30T22:17:02","modified_gmt":"2024-07-01T02:17:02","slug":"a-missed-opportunity-not-a-disaster-what-the-polls-are-showing-about-the-debate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/?p=10988","title":{"rendered":"A missed opportunity, not a disaster; what the polls are showing about the debate."},"content":{"rendered":"
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Two post-debate poll results that allow for comparison to pre-debate polls. Almost no change compared to polls before the debate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Ipsos: Biden down 1.5; Trump up .4; Biden ahead by 2.8<\/div>\n
Morning Consult: Biden up 1; Trump unchanged, Biden ahead by 1<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Other post-debate polls show a very close race. No evidence that the debate cause a significant drop in Biden’s support.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Data for progress Trump 48-Biden 45; no recent previous polls<\/div>\n
Survey USA Trump 45- Biden 43; no recent previous poll<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Polls do show most people think Trump won the debate whatever that means and more are worried about Biden’s age. But no sharp changes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Why didn’t the debate have more impact?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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1. Biden’s age was already baked into the result. As I pointed out above, the real harm is that Biden didn’t do anything to change concerns about this age. But those concerns were not much greater and at any rate aren’t effecting who people will vote for. (That is, I’m concerned about this age but that has absolutely no effect on m vote.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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2. The race is really tight and most people know who they are voting for. My guess is that no more than 7-8% are undecided or likely to change their mind<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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We are certainly not out of the woods. Biden’s team has to figure out how to get Biden in front of people to take questions in ways that enable him to do well so people can be reassured.<\/p>\n

There are a lot of ways to do that. Money is not going to be an issue so Biden can buy national TV and social media \u00a0time to face questions from interviewers and \u00a0voters. \u00a0He will have to go out and campaign more as he has been doing. He will have to sit for more interviews with reporters.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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But that was also \u00a0true before. The debate was a missed opportunity not a disaster.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Two post-debate poll results that allow for comparison to pre-debate polls. Almost no change compared to polls before the debate. Ipsos: Biden down 1.5; Trump up .4; Biden ahead by 2.8 Morning Consult: Biden up 1; Trump unchanged, Biden ahead by 1 Other post-debate polls show a very close race. No evidence that the debate cause a significant drop in Biden’s support. Data for progress Trump 48-Biden 45; no recent previous polls Survey USA Trump 45- Biden 43; no recent previous poll Polls do show most people think Trump won the debate whatever that means and more are worried about Biden’s age. But no sharp changes. Why didn’t the debate have more impact? 1. Biden’s age was already baked into the result. As I pointed out above, the real harm is that Biden didn’t do anything to change concerns about this age. But those concerns were not much greater and\u2026 Continue reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1896,"featured_media":10990,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[297,42,15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-297","category-elections-and-voting","category-politics"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/donald-trump-joe-biden-debate-pointing-fingers-0930201.jpg?fit=1692%2C1142&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p35YuU-2Re","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10988","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1896"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10988"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10988\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10991,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10988\/revisions\/10991"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10990"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/marcstier.com\/blog2\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}